What we learned in NFL Week 17: Vikings alive for top seed, Colts ’embarrassing’

One week to go, still plenty to be decided.

Start here, with the first regular-season game in NFL history featuring two teams with at least 13 wins. The Lions and Vikings will not only decide the NFC North title next Sunday night at Ford Field but also the conference’s top seed and lone first-round bye.

Then there’s Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, now the ninth rusher to eclipse 2,000 yards in a season. In Philly’s finale, he has the chance to break one of the league’s most vaunted records — one that’s stood for 40 years.

There’s one playoff spot in each conference still up for grabs — an AFC wild-card berth and the NFC South champ.

And, following the Giants’ upset of the Colts, there’s a new front-runner for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft.

GO DEEPER

NFL Week 17 takeaways: Are Vikings on the Lions’, Eagles’ level? Should Cowboys keep McCarthy?

As for Sunday and Week 17, Sam Darnold and the Vikings continued to script the most improbable story of the 2024 season. Thanks to another career day from Darnold — 377 passing yards and three touchdowns — the Vikings staved off a Packers rally for a 27-25 win to keep Minnesota’s hope for the NFC’s No. 1 seed alive. Consider: The over/under for the Vikings’ win total at the start of the season was a mere 6.5. Kevin O’Connell’s team is now 14-2 and one win away from the conference’s No. 1 seed.

Darnold’s revival continues to defy the odds. He’s on his fourth team in five years. He was written off by the Jets, then the Panthers, then spent last season backing up Brock Purdy with the 49ers. Now he’s the first quarterback in NFL history to win 14 games in his first season with a team. He’s thrown 35 touchdowns. On Sunday alone he hit eight receivers, proving again that this is more than just having one of the game’s elite weapons in Justin Jefferson. Darnold’s been flat-out terrific, and one of the main reasons the Vikings have won nine straight.

“Another big-time performance when his team needed him,” O’Connell gushed of his quarterback. “There’s so many things that lead into moments like this for Sam since he became a Minnesota Viking. … Our football team loves him for it, and I’ve had an absolute blast coaching him.”

On the other end, of the Packers’ five losses this season, four have come within the NFC North.

Jayden Daniels’ touchdown throw to Zach Ertz in overtime Sunday night clinched not just the Commanders’ return to the playoffs but also a division title for the Rams. (L.A. edged Seattle via the strength of victory tiebreaker.) That means just one division has yet to be decided. The Bucs, 48-14 winners over the Panthers on Sunday, are now 9-7 and a game in front of the Falcons, who fell to the Commanders in overtime. Atlanta is 8-8 but would win the division if both teams finish with the same record by virtue of a season sweep over Tampa Bay.

The Dolphins won with Tyler Huntley at quarterback to stay alive in the AFC playoff race. The Colts clinched another January at home after an embarrassing loss to the Giants. And the Bills routed the Jets 40-14 to inch New York one game closer to a merciful end for a miserable season. And possibly nudged Aaron Rodgers toward retirement.

Here’s what we learned in Week 17:

Broncos win, they’re in

In the AFC, all but one spot has been decided. Three teams — Denver, Miami and Cincinnati — still have a chance. But it remains the Broncos’ to lose.

The playoffs will run through Kansas City after the Chiefs clinched the No. 1 seed and first-round bye with their Christmas Day victory over the Steelers. Buffalo is locked into the No. 2 spot, and with a win next week over the lowly Browns the Ravens would claim a second straight AFC North title. The Steelers and Chargers have clinched playoff spots; the only way Pittsburgh wins the AFC North is if Baltimore loses and the Steelers beat the Bengals, who still have something to play for thanks to Saturday’s overtime win over the Broncos.

Here are the scenarios for the final AFC playoff spot:

• If the Broncos beat the Chiefs, Denver is in.
• If the Dolphins beat the Jets and the Broncos lose to the Chiefs, Miami is in.
• If the Bengals beat the Steelers and both the Broncos and Dolphins lose, Cincinnati is in.
• If all three teams lose, the Broncos earn the final playoff spot.

In all likelihood, Denver will take care of business against Kansas City’s backups. But at least for one more week, Miami and Cincinnati have life.

Assuming the Ravens claim the AFC North, that would set up wild-card matchups between the Bills and Broncos, Ravens and Chargers and Texans and Steelers.

NFC South still to be won

The NFC is a bit messier.

For starters, the top seed remains up for grabs heading into Week 18. The Lions-Vikings winner will not only earn the NFC North title but also the No. 1 seed and the first-round bye. The loser at Ford Field? They’ll slide to the No. 5 spot and open the playoffs on the road. (That is regardless of what happens between the Lions and 49ers Monday night — even with a loss, Detroit will still face Minnesota next week with the division title and No. 1 seed on the line.)

The Eagles are locked into the No. 2 spot.

Thanks to the Commanders’ overtime victory over the Falcons Sunday night, Washington is in the playoffs for the first time since 2020. Dan Quinn’s team could also climb to the No. 6 seed with a win next week over the Cowboys. In that scenario, Green Bay would fall to No. 7.

Washington’s win also means the Rams have clinched the NFC West via the strength-of-victory tiebreaker. The Seahawks, holding out slim hopes of making the postseason in coach Mike Macdonald’s first year, were eliminated.

The NFC South, though, remains a question mark. If the Bucs beat the Saints next week, they clinch the division. If they lose and the Falcons beat the Panthers, Atlanta would win it based on the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Giants’ win comes at a cost

“We know where we’re going,” Shedeur Sanders said in the days leading up to his final collegiate game.

When Colorado’s quarterback took the field for the Alamo Bowl in custom cleats with the New York Giants logo on them, the message was clear: Sanders fully expected to go No. 1 to the Giants in the draft.

Then a funny thing happened: The Giants won a game, for the first time at home all season and for the first time anywhere since early October. And with its 45-33 victory over the Colts, New York forfeited its pole position in the race for the No. 1 pick.

Might that change where Sanders ends up?

It very well could. Because after Sunday’s results, the Giants are slated to pick fourth, behind the Patriots, Titans and Browns.

If New England loses next week to Buffalo — the Bills have already locked up the AFC’s No. 2 seed and will likely rest some starters ahead of the playoffs — the Patriots would clinch the franchise’s first No. 1 selection since 1993.

Four teams are 3-13, but the Patriots own the top seed, so to speak, by virtue of strength of schedule. The Titans host the Texans in Week 18, the Giants are on the road against the Eagles and the Browns are on the road against the Ravens.

If the current order holds, it makes for an interesting dilemma: The Patriots, following Drake Maye’s promising rookie season, won’t be in the market for a quarterback. Would they trade out of the top spot, like the Bears did two years ago? The price would be steep for a team such as the Titans, Browns, Giants, Jets, Raiders or someone else looking to trade up for a chance at grabbing their quarterback of the future, depending on where they’re coming from in the draft order. Carolina, remember, had to send Chicago two first-round picks, a second-rounder and wideout D.J. Moore to jump from No. 9 to the top of the 2023 draft to land Bryce Young.

Or New England could simply stay at No. 1 and take whichever player it prefers.

Sanders may very well end up with the Giants, but that became far less certain on Sunday.

Barkley joins 2K club

Saquon Barkley joined one of the most exclusive groups in NFL history Sunday, climbing past 2,000 rushing yards for the season in Philly’s 41-7 rout of the Cowboys. He’s just the ninth rusher in league history to do so, joining O.J. Simpson (1973), Eric Dickerson (1984), Barry Sanders (1997), Terrell Davis (1998), Jamal Lewis (2003), Chris Johnson (2009), Adrian Peterson (2012) and Derrick Henry (2020).

Barkley has 2,005 rushing yards, exactly 100 shy of Dickerson’s single-season record, set way back in 1984 (when Dickerson set the mark in 16 starts). But with the Eagles already locked into the NFC’s No. 2 seed, Barkley’s unlikely to see a lot of snaps in next week’s finale against the Giants.

Saquon Barkley could set an NFL single-season rushing record next week, but will he see enough action? (Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)

“I’m not overtly trying to get (the record),” he said after Sunday’s game. “I’m not scared of it, but we’ve got bigger things we’re focused on. Whether we play next week or rest, I’m fine with that. I didn’t sign here just to break a record. I want to do something special with the team.”

Colts’ hopes end with thud

If you can’t beat the team with the worst record in football, you don’t deserve a spot in the dance.

Sunday’s loss to the Giants was an utter embarrassment for the Colts, one of the worst in recent memory for a franchise that has underachieved for the better part of five seasons. This was an especially dark day for Gus Bradley’s defense, which allowed Drew Lock and the Giants to pile up 389 all-purpose yards. The Giants entered Sunday having scored 32 points all of December — that’s three games — then lit the Colts up for 45 in one afternoon. It’s the most the franchise has scored in a game in nine years.

“It’s embarrassing. It’s disappointing. We got just flat-out beat,” linebacker Zaire Franklin said. “The performance that we put out defensively, beyond unacceptable. And you can’t play like that if you plan on being a playoff team.”

That makes four straight seasons the Colts have missed the postseason, six since their last playoff victory and 10 without a division title.

Coach Shane Steichen, who led the Colts to within one win of an AFC South crown with backup Gardner Minshew under center for most of last season, couldn’t back up his impressive debut. His offense looked stale, and only late in the year did he find something of a groove with second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson, who was benched midseason and struggled to find consistency even after he returned. Richardson has started just 15 of a possible 33 games in two seasons and has yet to prove he’s a long-term answer at the position.

The Colts have some decisions to make.

Does Steichen return?

“I control what I can control,” he said after the loss in New York.

Does Bradley?

“I love Gus,” Steichen said Sunday. “Obviously (today) we’d all love to be better.”

What about general manager Chris Ballard, who is eight seasons into his tenure and has yet to produce a division winner? Owner Jim Irsay, who’s been uncharacteristically quiet of late, will have to decide what he wants the future of his franchise to look like.

(Photo of Joe Flacco and Shane Steichen: Luke Hales / Getty Images)