The race to topple the Kansas City Chiefs is about to get underway.
Though as the AFC’s top seed, the reigning two-time Super Bowl champs get to rest during Wild-Card weekend. The 12 teams playing have more immediate priorities than the Chiefs, but the end goal remains: lift the Lombardi Trophy in New Orleans.
It was the year of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, and the Detroit Lions’ dominance over an all-time great NFC North. Other contenders, such as the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings, appear ready to handle the big stage. Yet, through it all, the Chiefs remained a quiet constant, storming through the schedule with a 15-2 record despite a number of close calls. The other 13 playoff teams, including the NFC’s top-seeded Lions, have to believe the Chiefs are as vulnerable as they’ve been during their dynastic era, but that’s easy to say before lining up against the NFL’s modern-day juggernauts.
Patrick Mahomes is 15-3 in the playoffs, his three losses coming against Tom Brady (once with New England, once with the Bucs) and Joe Burrow. Brady is retired and Burrow’s Bengals missed the playoffs, so if the Chiefs’ three-peat quest is going to be derailed, an opposing QB is going to have to do something he’s never done before.
The playoffs open with six games this weekend; The Athletic polled eight coaches and personnel executives to get their thoughts and predictions on the matchups. (Note: Those who were polled were not allowed to vote on their own team’s game.)
Get ready for the NFL playoffs
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at No. 4 Houston Texans (10-7)
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Expert picks: Chargers 6, Texans 2
Quarterback C.J. Stroud and the Texans appeared poised to join the elite ranks after a 5-1 start to the season, but they’ve lost six of their last 11 games while dealing with key injuries and an offensive line that hasn’t held up. Stroud, as a result, was worse in every major statistical category relative to his rookie season.
The Chargers are heading in a different direction. They won eight of 11, including three in a row, to jump into the coveted No. 5 seed and the right to play against the reeling AFC South champions.
“(The Chargers are) playing really good ball as of late,” an assistant coach said. “They will be balanced enough with the run and pass to throw off the Texans’ pass rush.”
If the Texans are going to have a chance, they’ll need edge rushers Danielle Hunter (12 sacks) and Will Anderson (11) to have big games. That tandem racked up nearly half of the defense’s 49 sacks. Though the Texans’ strength might be neutralized by Chargers tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. L.A. allowed 44 sacks during the regular season, 14th-most in the NFL, but quarterback Justin Herbert has only been sacked three times in the last three games, albeit against lighter competition. However, it’s a marked improvement over a brutal, 10-game midseason stretch when he was taken down 32 times, including at least three sacks in eight of those games.
“The (Chargers’) physicality, running the ball, that quarterback finds a way,” an executive said. “I can’t buy in right now to the Texans’ offensive front and the pressure C.J. is getting. The way the Chargers are protecting now with those two tackles, I think they can handle those rushers.”
There is playoff history for both organizations that shouldn’t be ignored. The Texans, who are playing in the wild-card Saturday afternoon time slot for a league-high seventh time since the 2012 postseason, have dealt with the diminished spotlight throughout their history. But in their previous seven playoff appearances, Houston has gone one-and-done just twice. Meanwhile, the Chargers have two playoff wins over the last 15 years. They blew a 27-0 lead to the Jacksonville Jaguars two years ago in their last postseason appearance. It could be why one assistant coach proclaimed the Texans will “definitely” win the game.
Also of note, this matchup features teams that struggled against opponents that made the postseason — the Chargers were 2-5, both wins against the Denver Broncos, while the Texans were 1-5, the victory coming in Week 5 against the Bills. These teams have never met in the playoffs.
Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson will square off for the third time this season. The Steelers and Ravens split the season series. (Justin K. Aller / Getty Images)
No. 6 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at No. 3 Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET Saturday
Expert picks: Ravens 8, Steelers 0
It might be rivalry week for two hated AFC North teams, but the rest of the league doesn’t anticipate a close game. This matchup was the only unanimous vote of the wild-card round.
The Ravens’ 34-17 home victory in Week 16 against the reeling Steelers apparently left a mark.
“Baltimore simply can score more than the Steelers,” a coach said. “Pittsburgh has leveled off at a bad time.”
The Steelers have lost four in a row, including non-competitive defeats to the Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs. The Packers, with back-to-back losses, are the only other playoff team with a multi-game losing streak. Additionally, coach Mike Tomlin is 2-5 in road playoff games.
The Steelers got a jolt when they installed Russell Wilson as their starting quarterback, but they’ve fallen off lately. Pittsburgh averaged 30.3 points in Wilson’s first three starts but just 20.6 in his last eight — a number greatly inflated by a 44-38 win over the Bengals — including six games with fewer than 20 points.
However, Jackson is only 2-4 in the playoffs, completing 57.4 percent of his passes for an average of 220.7 yards per outing with six touchdowns and six interceptions. He also has averaged 86.8 rushing yards with three postseason rushing touchdowns. Historically, the Steelers have done a strong job stifling Jackson, going 6-2 against the two-time MVP. Jackson, though, threw for 207 yards, three touchdowns and an interception in their last meeting; his 115.4 passer rating was the first time he’s exceeded a rating of 81 against Pittsburgh.
Even with past MVP hardware, Jackson has taken his game to another level this season, with career bests of 4,172 passing yards, 41 touchdowns and four interceptions. He’s also tacked on 915 rushing yards — a total output of 5,087 yards — and four scores.
“I think Lamar makes a run this year,” an executive said. “Derrick Henry in the playoffs is such a great complement.”
The Ravens played a league-high 10 games against opponents that made the playoffs, and their seven wins in those games matched the Chiefs for the most in the NFL. They were 1-1 against the Steelers.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, went 4-3 against playoff teams, though they’ve lost three in a row against opponents from this year’s postseason field, all since Week 15.
The Steelers are 3-1 against the Ravens in the playoffs, but Baltimore won the last meeting, 10 years ago. This is the teams’ first postseason matchup in Baltimore.
No. 7 Denver Broncos (10-7) at No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Expert picks: Bills 7, Broncos 1
It’s been all Josh Allen this season, and he might be on the verge of his first MVP award. He’ll need to maintain this level to deliver Buffalo a long-coveted Lombardi Trophy.
“So much is put on the quarterback,” an executive said. “(Allen) has to play well for them to advance. If he has a stinker, they’ll be in trouble. I think they’ll play decently on defense, and they’re at their place so I think they would win.”
The Bills were just 2-3 against opponents who made the playoffs this season, but their victories came against the Chiefs and Lions. They’re the only team in NFL history to beat two 15-win teams in a season.
While they’re capable of taking down the best, the Bills have had some recent defensive lapses, notably giving up 86 points in back-to-back games against the Los Angeles Rams and Lions. Allen has the potential to play a perfect game every time he hits the field, but the Bills don’t want to force him to keep doing it every week in the playoffs.
The Broncos have one of the worst résumés among teams in the postseason field. They were 2-5 against playoff opponents; they had an impressive Week 3 blowout of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the other victory was a takedown of the Chiefs’ backups in the regular-season finale. Denver needed that win to get into the postseason after failed attempts to clinch against the Chargers and Bengals.
Nonetheless, this was an impressive turnaround for the Broncos in Sean Payton’s second season as head coach, especially considering they had $32 million of Russell Wilson’s dead money on the books. Denver allowed the third-fewest points in the league and got timely quarterback play out of Bo Nix.
The Broncos won the last meeting between these teams, 24-22, in 2023 on Monday Night Football.
The executive who picked the Broncos was decisive with his prediction: “The defense stifles Josh Allen in a shocker, and they blow it up in Buffalo.”
A coach who picked the Bills thought this would be the best game of the weekend.
The Bills won the teams’ only postseason matchup, in the 1991 playoffs.
No. 7 Green Bay Packers (11-6) at No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET Sunday
Expert picks: Eagles 6, Packers 2
The panel worked under the assumption quarterbacks Jalen Hurts (concussion) and Jordan Love (elbow) would be cleared to play. Hurts has missed two games, while Love was injured Sunday and has sounded optimistic about his availability.
The Eagles have been as hot as any team on the planet. Since starting 2-2, Philadelphia won 12 of 13, including a stretch of 10 consecutive wins. The loss came against the Washington Commanders, 36-33, in Week 16, a game Hurts left in the first quarter after he was concussed.
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s group allowed the second-fewest points in the league (17.8), and the offense has been rolling behind MVP candidate Saquon Barkley. The running back led the league with 2,005 rushing yards and 2,283 yards from scrimmage, and he scored 15 times.
Hurts was the point guard for an offense that also got big production out of receivers A.J. Brown (67 catches, 1,079 yards, seven touchdowns) and DeVonta Smith (68-833-8).
“Jalen is coming back,” an executive said. “Saquon is running the ball great. That defense has played so well, especially in the back end. That’s going to hurt Jordan Love.”
The Packers stumbled down the stretch, losing three of five, including two in a row. But while they’ve looked loaded at times and beaten up on lesser competition, the Packers were 2-5 against playoff teams. They beat the Rams in Week 5 — a game that knocked the Rams to 1-5 — and the Texans in Week 7.
By comparison, the Eagles were 6-2 against this year’s playoff teams, including 4-1 since Week 11. That included beating the Packers, 34-29, in the season opener in Brazil.
Love’s numbers were down in his second season as the starter, but he has done a better job of taking care of the ball. He threw 11 interceptions, but he hasn’t been picked in seven straight games. Still, one executive was concerned about Love losing feeling in his throwing hand after the elbow injury.
“Not sure about Love’s injury and (the Packers being) fully able to be winners yet,” the executive said.
Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley had an impressive first season. Green Bay allowed the sixth-fewest points in the NFL despite losing star cornerback Jaire Alexander midway through the season and linebacker Quay Walker down the stretch.
This game, perhaps more than any this weekend, could be decided by turnovers. Both teams are ranked in the top-six in takeaways, with their combined 57 takeaways the most among wild-card opponents.
“Green Bay is undisciplined and will make a critical mistake late that they can’t overcome,” a coach said.
The Eagles are 2-1 against the Packers in the playoffs, although this is their first meeting in 14 years.
No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5) at No. 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET Sunday
Expert picks: Buccaneers 5, Commanders 2
The Bucs won the vote, but a few panelists view this as a close game that could go either way.
The Bucs have claimed four consecutive NFC South titles, but they needed to win six of seven down the stretch to hold off the Atlanta Falcons. They’re battle-tested with a 4-3 record against playoff teams, and their wins against the Lions and Eagles indicate Tampa can beat anyone.
The Commanders aren’t as proven, with a 1-4 record against teams in the postseason field. The win came against the Eagles, with Hurts forced from the game in the first quarter.
For the Bucs, it starts with quarterback Baker Mayfield, who had the best season of his career for the second year in a row. Mayfield completed 71.4 percent of his passes for 4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, and he was also at his best as a runner with 378 yards, three scores and 24 carries for first downs.
“Gritty team, love the way Baker competes,” an executive said. “(Bucs head coach Todd) Bowles dials up a good game plan against rookie QBs.”
The Bucs’ greatest weakness might be on defense, as they’ve struggled at times to get off the field. Of note: Dallas Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush led scoring drives on six of his first seven possessions in a surprising Sunday night upset against the Buccaneers in Week 16.
The Bucs allowed 22.6 points per game, the third-most among playoff teams, but the Commanders allowed the most (23.0). They acquired cornerback Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline to address an undermanned secondary, but he’s been limited to two games due to a hamstring injury. If Lattimore is available, the former Saint could be in store for another big-time matchup against wideout Mike Evans.
Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels had an outstanding season and could be efficient enough to cause huge problems for the Bucs. Daniels completed 69.0 percent of his passes for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions, and he added a team-high 891 rushing yards along with six scores. His favorite target has been Terry McLaurin (82 catches, 1,096 yards, 13 touchdowns).
If it’s a back-and-forth game, Daniels will be confident on the heels of game-winning drives against the Eagles and Falcons.
Turnovers will be a non-negotiable key to victory for the Bucs. While Mayfield has been terrific, he led the league with 16 interceptions, his most since 2019. However, the Commanders’ 17 takeaways are tied for the least in the playoff field.
“Flip a coin,” one executive said about the matchup.
However it plays out, the Commanders’ turnaround has been one of the most impressive stories of the season. Daniels, head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Adam Peters are each in their first season in those roles in Washington, and they delivered the franchise its best record since 1991 and its first playoff appearance in four years. But can the Commanders win their first playoff game since the 2005 postseason?
The Bucs are 2-1 in the playoffs against the Commanders, including a 31-23 win in Tampa four years ago.
No. 5 Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at No. 4 Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET Monday
Expert picks: Vikings 5, Rams 3
This was the closest vote, and it’s easy to understand why. For starters, the Rams won a home game against the Vikings, 30-20, in Week 8 (it was tighter than the final score indicates). Head coaches Sean McVay and Kevin O’Connell are good friends after working alongside one another with the Rams, including during L.A.’s Super Bowl run, and they both oversee similar offensive systems.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford was having a vintage stretch midway through the season before a shaky finish, while Vikings counterpart Sam Darnold has enjoyed a career resurgence that could net him a life-changing contract in free agency.
Both teams have strong defenses, with the Rams settling in under first-year coordinator Chris Shula and Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores putting quarterbacks in a blender all season. The Rams allowed 24 total points from Weeks 15-17 before resting starters in the regular-season finale against the Seahawks, and the Vikings allowed the fifth-fewest points in the NFL while being tied for the league lead with 33 takeaways.
The 14-win Vikings should be plenty motivated to win on the road after losing the NFC North to the Lions with a clunker last Sunday night. Darnold was as erratic as he’s been all season, and the defense was again dominated by the Lions’ balanced attack.
“I think Minnesota bounces back,” an executive said. “I don’t think they put back-to-back duds out there like that.”
Counterpoint: They already have. Minnesota fell to the Lions and Rams in Weeks 7 and 8, although both games were close. The Sunday night blowout in Detroit was uncharacteristic for a team that was 3-3 against playoff opponents.
The Rams were 2-3 against postseason foes, also knocking off the Bills.
“Stafford and McVay are better than Darnold and Kevin O’Connell,” an executive said. “(But) can Flores fluster their plan?”
Flores has confounded a number of quarterbacks this season, including Brock Purdy, Stroud, Love, Kyler Murray and Geno Smith. Even when the Vikings are giving up yards, they create enough confusion to cause turnovers.
One panelist believed the teams’ familiarity will favor the Rams, and it goes beyond McVay and O’Connell. Flores and Rams offensive staffers Nick Caley and Jerry Schuplinski all worked together with the New England Patriots.
“Flores will play the same game plan that he’s used in the past against McVay,” the coach said. “Jerry Schuplinski and Nick Caley both know the weaknesses in Flores’ defense and will help Sean game plan to avoid past issues. Darnold will struggle coming off last week’s game, and the Rams defense will get after them.”
These organizations have an extensive playoff history, with the Vikings taking five of seven meetings, although they haven’t met on this stage in 25 years.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos: Todd Rosenberg, Cooper Neill / Getty Images)
