Goldman Sachs has turned more cautious on Moderna as the biotech struggles against strong competition from other vaccine makers. Analyst Salveen Richter downgraded shares from neutral to buy. Additionally, she lowered her price target by $48 from to $51, which suggests about 13.5% potential upside ahead. Richter’s changes are based on revised revenue projections for Moderna’s respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, and cytomegalovirus, or CMV, vaccines. “We note the recent product revenue guidance represents the second in a series of negative revisions over the last six months, which while potentially at an achievable level, leads us to believe MRNA has limited visibility on the revenue stream for the respiratory vaccine business,” Richter said in a Wednesday note to clients. MRNA 1Y mountain Moderna stock performance. Richter also modeled for Moderna’s fiscal year 2025 product revenue to come out at the lower end of its guidance, at $1.5 billion. The company guided for in between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion. Increased competition in the Covid vaccine market, a possible reduction in vaccination rates and uncertainty around ASIP re-vaccination and age group recommendations with the RSV vaccine could all impact Moderna’s revenue, she said. ACIP is the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices that advises the government’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on how to use vaccines. Specifically with RSV, the analyst added that Moderna has been challenged by competitors GSK’s Arexvy vaccine and Pfizer’s ABRYSVO vaccine. “While participation in the contracting season should provide a better foothold for MRNA to achieve meaningful RSV vaccine sales, we remain conservative on our revenue projections given competitive pressures,” Richter said. Moderna shares have been pummeled over the past year, losing roughly 57%. Shares are up 8.1% so far in 2025.
