Wall Street is looking to see if Palantir Technologies can one-up its last blowout earnings report after the closing bell on Monday. The software platforms company has soared a staggering 385% over the past year. Palantir was also the best-performing stock in the S & P 500 for 2024, surging 340%. Contributing to that outperformance is retail traders embracing the stock. Data from Vanda Research released last week showed about $75 million in retail flows went into Palantir over a five-day stretch, the sixth-highest of any stock. Earlier in January, investors scooped up more than $150 million in Palantir shares. Analysts polled by LSEG expect Palantir will report earnings of 11 cents per share on revenue of $776 million. Key for Goldman Sachs analyst Adam Hotchkiss will be how the company’s commercial business performs. “Palantir is seeing sustained momentum in US Commercial driven by enterprise AI engagements,” Hotchkiss said. “We continue to expect upward revisions going forward in infrastructure predicated on improving core business coupled with the emerging Gen-AI product cycle.” In the third quarter, commercial revenue grew by 54% year on year, while Palantir’s government sales climbed 40% from the year-earlier period. PLTR 1Y mountain Palantir stock. Bank of America’s Mariana Perez Mora was exceedingly bullish ahead of Palantir’s results in a Monday note. The analyst said she expects the company to issue revenue results above guidance that called for $767 million to $771 million. She also raised her price target to $90 per share from $75 and reiterated a buy rating after last week’s DeepSeek-induced tech decline. The new price target implies upside of 9% from Friday’s close. “The recent DeepSeek news marked a differentiation between commodities and value-adding players in AI. Palantir has increasingly proven its enabler role in the AI era,” Mora said. “Its products are increasingly interoperable to third party apps and software and focus on extracting measurable and valuable outcomes from their proper implementation in the real world.” Baird analyst William Power said in a December note that he was closely watching revenue growth. He sees growth of 26% for 2024 and 24% in 2025. He also forecast adjusted EBITDA of $2.8 billion for 2024. To be sure, Jefferies analyst Brent Thill thinks Palantir’s run is unsustainable, given that the stock is trading at about a 50-times forward earnings. His underperform rating and $28 per share price target calls for about 66% downside moving forward. “The 4Q setup will be challenging as PLTR is lapping easy comps and any signs of non-accelerating growth could lead to further multiple compression. Fundamentals remain robust but PLTR would have to accel growth to 50% for 4 years and trade at 13.5x CY28E [revenue] just to hold its stock price,” Thill said. Analyst sentiment on the stock is neutral at best. LSEG data shows that 13 of the 21 analysts covering Palantir rate it as a hold, while just three have a buy or strong buy. Another five rate it a sell or underperform.
