It’s that rejuvenating time of year when the days get longer, the weather gets brighter and roughly 80 million people feverishly track their NCAA brackets for three frantic weekends.
Joining that group for the first time can be daunting, especially if you don’t have any college basketball experience. This whole event is supposed to be fun, and trying to understand the vast number of teams, rounds, regions and numbers can make recess feel like homework. You’re looking for entertainment, not a career change to bracketologist (yes, that is an actual job title). With that in mind, we’re here to answer any questions someone jumping into this for the first time might have. If you’re not new to this, be warned: This is not for you. We do have more advanced tips that can help you own your bracket pool.
Tournament overview
The main tournament comprises 64 teams split into four groups, called “regions.” Schools are, for the most part, not assigned to a region because that’s where they’re from; it’s just where the games for that group are played. Each group, or region, has 16 teams ranked 1-16. The matchups follow the rankings, so the No. 1 team in that region plays the No. 16 team, No. 2 plays No. 15, and so on. The tournament is single elimination. Eventually, one team will emerge victorious from each of the four regions, and that group is called the Final Four. Two teams from the left side of the bracket play each other, and that winner plays the winner of the two teams from the right side. The winner of that final game is the national champion.
Why do I keep hearing about 68 teams?
Ah, yes, that. You will hear the term “First Four” leading up to the main tournament, which refers to four games that happen before the big tourney gets going. Essentially, every region has one of its 16 slots open, and eight teams play for the chance to get one of those last four slots. It’s a little pre-tournament before the big one, with the winners rounding out the 64-team field and the four losers going home. That’s how you get to 68.
Should I pay attention to the First Four?
You don’t have to. Some bracket pools have you pick these games; some do not. Don’t worry if the games have already been played and you didn’t have time to pick these or forgot to. These teams are long shots and not expected to go far in the main tournament, but they have made runs. VCU made the Final Four from the First Four in 2011, and UCLA pulled off the feat in 2021.
Now, how do I make my picks for a bracket pool?
The basic rule is: The higher-seeded a team is (No. 1 seeds are the highest), the more likely that team is to win. There are 63 total games played in the main tournament; on average, the higher seed wins about 70 percent of the time. This is especially true of teams among the top three seeds in their region. Thirty-four of the past 39 tournaments were won by a No. 3 seed or higher, and 25 of those were No. 1 seeds (last year, for example, No. 1-seeded UConn beat another No. 1 seed, Purdue, for the championship). Leaning on the rankings will help quite a bit and net you a lot of correct picks.
So, why not pick the highest-seeded team in every matchup?
That’s one strategy, and it’s referred to as “picking chalk.” It’s a safe way to ensure you don’t finish last, but there are upsets in every tournament. On average, there are about a dozen games where the lower-seeded team wins, most frequently when the teams are only separated by a few spots. Even upsets in games where teams are separated by five or more spots happen about eight times per tournament. That varies from year to year, but you usually don’t see fewer than five of those huge upsets. Winning a bracket pool comes down to picking the right upsets.
How do I pick the right upsets?
It’s hard, and don’t feel bad if you guess wrong. The seeds are helpful again here, as is understanding how bracket scoring works. Bracket pools award points for each correct pick, usually increasing the points for each round. So choosing the winner of a first-round game may be worth two points, then in the second round, correct picks are worth four points each, and so on. The more correct picks you have late in the tournament, the more points you get.
Upsets generally occur in the first two rounds, and it’s safest to avoid picking upsets involving a No. 1, 2 or 3 seed in the early rounds (see above). They happen but are very rare. A No. 1 seed has lost to a No. 16 seed twice in history; No. 2 seeds have lost to No. 15 seeds only 11 times out of 156.
If you pick an upset against a high seed and are wrong, you miss out on points for that game and many more points in the later rounds had you chosen the high seed to advance. The closer two seeds are in number, the more likely an upset is. For example, a No. 10 seed beating a No. 7 seed is a safer pick than a No. 14 seed over a No. 3 seed. And if you’re wrong, the No. 7 seed isn’t likely to be around in the late rounds, so you don’t risk losing out on those points, whereas a No. 3 seed might win it all.
How do I pick everything correctly?
You don’t. No one ever has. It will probably never happen.
What if I can’t decide between two teams?
If you have a mental logjam and the seeds aren’t helping, pick a determining factor that entertains you. It can be completely arbitrary. Maybe go by which team name would win in a fight (i.e., a “Spartan” vs. a “Coyote”) or which school’s city you would rather live in. A personal favorite tiebreaker of mine is selecting the team with the player who has the most letters in their name. You’re here for a good time, not a long time.
When can I watch the tournament?
The first round starts Thursday, March 20, and a lot happens at the beginning. Half the teams in the field play their first-round game Thursday, with the other half playing Friday. On Saturday, the winners of Thursday’s first-round games play their second-round games, and on Sunday, Friday’s winners follow suit.
By the end of that first weekend, two full rounds have been played, and what once was a field of 64 teams is now down to 16 (called the Sweet 16). The first weekend is the most exciting part of the tournament because basketball is broadcast from morning to night for four straight days, and every hour, your bracket could get a big boost or a fatal blow.
The following Thursday, March 27, the Sweet 16 begins. Half the remaining teams play that day, with those winners playing again on Saturday in Round 4 (also called the Elite Eight). The other half plays on Friday, with those winners playing their Elite Eight games on Sunday.
Then, we’re down to the last four teams (Final Four). They play the following Saturday, with the two winners facing off for the national championship on Monday, April 7.
Do I have to watch every game?
You do not. The early rounds can be fun to watch, especially with a group, because of the pace of action and frequency of drama, but watch as many or as few games as you like. Usually, by the Sweet 16, you’ll know if your bracket has a chance to win your pool. From that point on, it’ll be more fun if you at least check in on games where you have a vested interest in one team winning. You might even find a player you end up having lifelong affection for, if for no other reason than they kept your bracket alive.
Anything else?
Try to avoid filling out too many brackets. You often end up varying your picks enough that a big win for one of your brackets means a big loss for another, and you cancel out your happiness. I think the optimal number is two — one chosen by your head, the other by your heart. That way, you’re happy whichever one does well. Oh, and don’t forget to gloat if you get a lot of picks correct. The best part of filling out a bracket is talking about it, especially if it’s going well.
(Photo: Joel Angel Juarez / The Republic / USA Today Network via Imagn)
