Tesla is about to hit a rough sales patch, leading Mizuho to trim its estimates on the stock. The firm slashed its price target on the electric vehicle stock to $430 per share from $515 but stood by an outperform rating. Mizuho’s forecast implies 72% upside ahead from Friday’s close. Analyst Vijay Rakesh said in a note that Tesla’s February sales likely underperformed the broader automotive market, especially in the U.S., as well as in Europe and China. The biggest pain spots, Rakesh estimated, were in China and Germany, where he forecast declines of 49% and 76%, respectively. Germany is the largest EV market in Europe, he noted. TSLA YTD mountain Tesla stock in 2025. “We believe TSLA’s sales woes are the result of a deterioration in geopolitics, brand perception (US/EU), share loss due to stronger competition (China), and softer-than-expected demand for the Model Y refresh,” Rakesh said. Tesla has pulled back more than 38% in 2025. The stock, which just five months ago was riding high on the heels of President Donald Trump’s election win, has seen analysts sour on its prospects in recent weeks. Last week, the company warned it could face headwinds due to retaliatory tariffs from countries responding to Trump’s slate of duties. More broadly, Rakesh said Trump’s levies have bleak implications for the entire automotive segment. Even though the president excluded several goods that fall under the jurisdiction of the North American trade agreement known as the USMCA, Rakesh estimated that as much as 20% of automotive parts are uncompliant with the trade agreement’s rules. Analyst sentiment on Tesla is mixed. LSEG data shows that 28 of 54 analysts covering the stock rate it a hold, underperform or sell. The remaining 26 have a buy or strong buy rating.
