David Zaslav attends the world premiere of “The Flash”, in Hollywood, Los Angeles, California, U.S., June 12, 2023.

Mike Blake | Reuters

A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Sport newsletter with Alex Sherman, which brings you the biggest news and exclusive interviews from the worlds of sports business and media. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.

Everyone is trying to assess how President Donald Trump‘s tariff policies will or could affect their lives and industries. In the sports world, the resulting economic uncertainty will likely do more harm than the tariffs themselves.

I asked WNBA Commissioner Cathy Engelbert (this week’s “On The Record” guest) if market turbulence in recent weeks has affected ticket sales for the upcoming season that begins May 16.

“Not this season, for sure, because most of our arenas are already sold out,” Engelbert told me. “So I’m not worried this year, but certainly as we go forward, if we were to enter into a deep recession of some sort, then you start to look again at scenario plans and contingency plans around that.”

As the private equity firm Arctos Partners said last week in a note to clients, sports are fairly well protected from recessions because “the underlying business model of sports benefits from exceptional stability due to long-term, contracted revenues across media rights, sponsorship and ticketing and enjoys sticky, largely domestic demand.”

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A recession typically goes hand-in-hand with a dip in advertising spending. Logically, companies such as automakers or toymakers that might see demand fall as tariffs raise prices could pull back on advertising to save money. Still, several big media companies told me that they haven’t seen any significant effect on ad spend yet heading into next month’s industry-wide upfront presentations. 

Sports, in particular, will probably be the last events to lose advertising tonnage. Fans watch games live and can’t skip ads. Sports and league executives expressed confidence that scripted entertainment would feel more of the pain if companies retrench. Alex Weprin of The Hollywood Reporter wrote a good piece about this yesterday

Some sports may also benefit from decreased travel – a phenomenon United Airlines said this week is already happening. Consumers could attend local sporting events for entertainment instead of going on pricier vacations. Last month’s consumer confidence reading hit a 12-year low.

But one place where the sports world may feel the effects is in media consolidation – or lack thereof. Legacy media companies including Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount Global and Comcast want to change their asset mix. Comcast is moving forward with spinning out most of its cable networks, including CNBC. Paramount Global is trying to merge with Skydance Media. 

No company’s CEO has been more vocal about the need for a light regulatory touch on mergers and acquisitions than Warner Bros. Discovery boss David Zaslav.

“We just need an opportunity for deregulation, so companies can consolidate and do what we need to be even better,” Zaslav told reporters at Allen & Co.’s annual Sun Valley conference last year.

Consolidation is a big deal for the sports world. All three of Warner Bros. Discovery, Comcast and Paramount own major sports rights, including some of the biggest packages of rights for the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, the National Collegiate Athletic Association, the National Hockey League and Major League Baseball. 

Zaslav hoped a Trump victory would bring the deregulation he wanted. Not only has that not happened yet (Paramount’s deal with Skydance is still awaiting approval from the Federal Communications Commission, prompting the first of potentially two 90-day extensions), but wild market swings have made any type of consolidation virtually impossible.

While Trump claims to love the art of the deal, the administration’s economic policies have ironically stymied Zaslav’s dealmaking plans.

Paramount Global would love to close its agreement with Skydance, fix Paramount Pictures by adding to its movie slate, and then merge with another studio, according to people familiar with the matter. Warner would be near or at the top of that list, the people said. 

But if Zaslav doesn’t want to wait, I’m told he may still pivot and split his company into two – a low-debt entity housing his streaming service Max, the studio, the gaming division and the company’s content library, and a second company with WBD’s cable networks and free over-the-air European assets, which would house news and sports.

No decisions have been made on this front yet, but WBD has hired bankers to work on options which include a potential split, according to people familiar with the matter. The Financial Times first reported this idea almost a year ago – quickly following up that Zaslav had decided a breakup wasn’t a good idea. Still, I’m told WBD hasn’t ruled it out if the board thinks it’s the easiest way to facilitate asset reallocation because other deals aren’t on the table. Warner Bros. Discovery has already internally split its legacy linear assets from the streaming and studio business, making a move far easier. 

The NBA was concerned WBD might not have the balance sheet heft to pay $2 billion a year (or more) for league rights for the next 11 years when it struck its most recent TV deal last year. If Zaslav were to split the company, the non-streaming entity that owns sports rights – including MLB, NHL, French Open, March Madness, NASCAR, and more – will be even smaller.

If that’s the direction Zaslav goes, it’ll take about ten seconds for pundits to start predicting what types of combinations could come next – likely starting with Comcast’s SpinCo and RemainCo (which will still house NBCUniversal and Peacock). 

Breaking up the company doesn’t require regulatory approval or glorified bribes to the Trump administration, as Michael Wolff reported earlier this week. Neither does forming new cross-company streaming bundles – another possibility once Paramount has more clarity on its future. A recession is probably worse news for the fourth or fifth-most popular streaming service (see: Max, Paramount+, Peacock) than it is for a company like Netflix – which, by the way, reports quarterly earnings this afternoon. I’ll be listening to the Netflix conference call for any insights into how that company is viewing Trump’s policies. 

Warner Bros. Discovery has already paused non-critical business travel, first reported by Oliver Darcy‘s Status newsletter. I can add a little more detail – I’m also told the company has temporarily frozen non-critical hiring and is being cautious about other expenditures, such as how many employees to send to Cannes Lions, the industry’s annual advertising extravaganza in Southern France — a location where Zaslav himself threw a big party just two years ago.  

A Warner Bros. Discovery spokesperson declined to comment.

On the record

With WNBA Commissioner Cathy Engelbert and Ally Financial Chief Marketing Officer Andrea Brimmer 



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