The Pakistani government struck a measured tone after militants killed more than two dozen Indian civilians in Kashmir on Tuesday, insisting that it has no interest in seeing tensions with India escalate.
But across Pakistan, people are watching with growing concern as Indian officials hint at the possibility of military strikes, and the television airwaves have been filled with defense analysts warning of unpredictable consequences if hostilities between the nuclear-armed neighbors intensify.
The Indian government has not officially identified any group as being behind the attack in a scenic tourist area of Indian-administered Kashmir. But it announced a flurry of punitive measures against Pakistan on Wednesday, including the suspension of a critical water treaty, in answer to what it said was Pakistan’s support of terrorist attacks inside India.
After the Indian announcement, Pakistan said it was scheduling a meeting of the National Security Committee, the country’s highest decision-making forum on security and foreign policy, for Thursday to formulate a response.
The attack in Kashmir, a region both countries claim and have fought wars over, set off a familiar pattern.
The Indian news media, which is largely aligned with the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, quickly pointed a finger at Pakistan. Pakistan denied involvement and accused India of trying to deflect attention from security lapses in the restive region.
The last militant attack of this scale in the Indian part of Kashmir took place in 2019, when dozens of Indian security personnel were killed. After that assault, India launched an air battle that stopped just short of all-out war.
Some Pakistani analysts warn that the current confrontation could intensify beyond the 2019 standoff. “Indian escalation already began last night, and it will be at a bigger scale than February 2019,” Syed Muhammad Ali, a security analyst in Islamabad, said on Wednesday.
He claimed that India was using the attack to seek solidarity with the United States and defuse tensions over President Trump’s threat of tariffs, as well as to reframe the push for independence in Kashmir as a terrorist movement.
As of Wednesday, Pakistani officials said they had seen no evidence of an Indian military mobilization. They said that the Pakistani military remained alert along the Line of Control separating the Indian- and Pakistani-administered parts of Kashmir.
A senior Pakistani security official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic and military matters, said that Pakistan would approach any tit-for-tat escalation carefully but would thwart incursions by India if they occurred.
Some military analysts and current and former officials accused India of staging the attack, noting that it had come while Vice President JD Vance was visiting India.
“They’re blaming Pakistan without proof,” Ahmed Saeed Minhas, a retired brigadier general, said on the television channel Geo News.
He then made a joke about the 2019 standoff between Pakistan and India, when a video emerged of an Indian Air Force pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, sipping tea while in Pakistani custody.
“If India tries anything again, they should remember — we served tea to Abhinandan in 2019,” Mr. Minhas said. “This time, we might even offer him biscuits.”
The current tensions have revived memories of the 2019 episode.
A suicide bombing that February in the city of Pulwama prompted an Indian airstrike inside Pakistan, triggering a dogfight. An Indian jet was shot down, and Wing Commander Varthaman was captured and later released — a gesture that helped cool tensions, if briefly.
Officials say the current situation differs from 2019. While the Pulwama attack was claimed by the militant Islamist group Jaish-e-Mohammed and targeted security personnel, the one on Tuesday involved unarmed civilians, and any claims of responsibility have been vague and unverified.
So far, the Pakistani military has made no public statement about Tuesday’s attack. The Foreign Ministry on Wednesday condemned the loss of life, denied any role by Pakistan and urged India to avoid “premature and irresponsible allegations.”
Officials and analysts warn that while the region avoided catastrophe in 2019, that good fortune may not repeat itself.
“During the last escalation, both India and Pakistan were lucky to step down from the ladder,” said Murtaza Solangi, a former interim information minister.
“This time, we’re in a more dangerous phase,” he said. “A fractured global order and India’s hyperventilating media make it harder for Modi to act rationally. Both countries will be net losers if India doesn’t stop this madness.”
