When the market rallies, leadership often comes from megacap stocks like Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) , and this has certainly been the case since the April low was established by the S & P 500 Index (SPX) . The SPX has gained about 28% from its April low, and MSFT has added 44%, showing outperformance and upside leadership with its ~7% weighting in the index. Outperformance also came from Amazon.com (AMZN) , Meta Platforms (META) , NVIDIA (NVDA) , and Tesla (TSLA) . The impressive rally in MSFT was fueled by a positive reaction to its earnings report in April, when it gapped above its 200-day moving average (MA) in a technical catalyst. The stock subsequently cleared former resistance near $456, which is now initial support on the chart, and then lifted to new all-time highs through final resistance from 2024. So far, the rally has been nearly uninterrupted, allowing MSFT to sustain short-term overbought conditions for an unusually long duration, but a new counter-trend signal from the DeMARK Indicators (denoted by the ’13’) suggests a short-term downturn may be imminent. An easy way to monitor momentum is via the 20-day MA –when it rolls over, it tends to be indicative of a correction. We view the breakout to new highs by MSFT as a bullish long-term development. However, the intermediate-term measure move projection of approximately $504 is not far from current levels, so with support back near $456, the risk/reward would be more compelling after a pullback. Relative performance can be evaluated using the price-to-price ratio of MSFT versus the SPX. The recent upmove in the ratio reflects the outperformance by MSFT since the April low. Now, there are signs of upside exhaustion to suggest that MSFT may soon relinquish its leadership stronghold. —Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . DISCLOSURES: All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. 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