There’s a rosy outlook ahead for nCino , according to Baird. The bank upgraded the financial technology stock to outperform rating from neutral. Analyst Joe Vruwink new price target of $38, up from $30, implies potential upside of 32%. Vruwink pointed out that the backdrop looks extremely favorable for nCino. Moreover, the company’s management appears to be more positive about reaching its goals. “Current setup has many parallels to our favorite stock calls: macro/spend conditions likely turning higher, ‘mechanical’ growth accelerants, GTM catalysts, new product momentum…all with expectations having reset lower, yielding (we believe) the best estimate upside argument in years,” Vruwink wrote. “Recent travel with management underscored execution is key; many details shared are consistent with prior messaging, though confidence/enthusiasm around changes adds conviction.” The company appears to be “well underway” on many initiatives that should reaccelerate its subscription growth into double digits on a year-over-year basis. Meanwhile, nCino’s management is also confident it can achieve the so-called “Rule of 40” — or have a combined revenue growth rate and profit margin that exceeds 40%. Baird added that now presents an opportune time to buy into nCino, given that the company has reached an important crux in its thesis. “nCino undertook material reset in financial communications entering FY26 (Jan), and while short-term negative for the stock, we view this as a turning point in the investment case (stock now back to within 5-10% of late-March levels on relative basis),” he wrote. “In analyzing comparable episodes in small-cap vertical software, those that come back from the abyss (i.e., inflect growth rates closer to pre-reset levels) are able to fully recapture valuation (at pre-reset level).” The stock rose more than 2% following the upgrade. Shares of nCino have slipped 14% this year. NCNO YTD mountain NCNO YTD chart Analysts are mostly on the sidelines when it comes to nCino. LSEG data shows that 11 of 17 analysts covering the stock rate it a hold. Another six have a buy rating.
