Trump will call time on the Ukraine war now, and Russia knows it

Russia was an indirect beneficiary of the war in Gaza in that it distracted the U.S. and other Western countries from its ongoing war in Ukraine.

But now that there’s a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and a fledgling peace process has begun, U.S. President Donald Trump is turning his sights on ending the war in Ukraine.

The president said Thursday that he and other “high-level advisors” will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest, Hungary, to discuss how to end the war. It comes following a call with the two leaders in which Trump said Putin had congratulated him on the “great accomplishment of peace in the Middle East.”

“President Putin and I will then meet in an agreed upon location, Budapest, Hungary, to see if we can bring this “inglorious” War, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end. … I believe great progress was made with today’s telephone conversation,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

The meeting will be the second time the leaders have come face-to-face during Trump’s second term, and could happen within the next two weeks, according to the U.S. leader.

One way the White House is turning the screws on Moscow is by mooting the possibility of supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles. Trump is due to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Friday, with the leaders expected to discuss the matter.

Earlier in the week, Trump told reporters that he might use the Tomahawk missiles as leverage with Russia, saying he could tell Putin: “Look: if this war is not going to get settled, I’m going to send them Tomahawks.”

In another sign that the administration could be ready to deepen its military support for Kyiv, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth promised Wednesday that “firepower” was coming for Ukraine, although he did not mention Tomahawks by name.

Trump made no secret this week of the fact that he and envoys were planning to immediately renew efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to an end as it approaches its fourth anniversary.

Addressing Israeli lawmakers on Monday as he celebrated a ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel, Trump told the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, “We have to get Russia done.”

“Steve, let’s focus on Russia first, alright? We’ll get it [done],” Trump said, addressing the U.S.’ Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.

Having boasted ahead of his second term in office that he could get the Ukraine war to end in just “one day,” he conceded that it had proved trickier than he anticipated, noting: “I thought it would be easily settled. I thought it was a hell of a lot easier than doing what we just did [in Gaza].”

Victoria Coates, vice president at the Heritage Foundation’s Davis Institute, told CNBC this week that the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas would likely have an impact on the Russia-Ukraine war.

“The momentum behind resolving the Gaza conflict can help get to a resolution of the Ukraine war,” Coates, a deputy national security advisor in Trump’s first administration, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday.

“All these other countries that the president was meeting with [this week], and getting them behind conflict resolution, [can lead to] maybe putting some pressure on Putin to come to the table. So this can have a positive effect on Ukraine,” she said.

Of course, the big question now is whether Russia is ready to play ball with Trump and his team.

The Kremlin appears to be keen to show willingness in working toward ending the conflict, although critics (not least Ukraine) say that Russia is skilful at employing delay tactics so it can prolong the war to make territorial gains.

On Tuesday, the Kremlin reiterated Russia’s position, vehemently disputed by Kyiv and its Western allies, that it was Ukrainian intransigence that was preventing an end to the war which Russia launched in February 2022.

“Certainly, we welcome such intentions, we welcome the confirmation of the political will to assist the search for peaceful solutions in every possible way,” Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday, in comments reported by Interfax.

Russia “remains open to and ready for a peace dialogue,” Peskov said, adding that “we hope that the influence of the United States and the diplomatic prowess of President Trump’s envoys will certainly help prompt the Ukrainian side toward a greater readiness for a peace process.”

CNBC has contacted the Kremlin for further comment on its expectations for renewed talks with the U.S., and is awaiting a response.

Aside from touting the prospect of giving Ukraine Tomahawks — which the Kremlin admitted last Sunday was of “extreme concern” — Trump has been putting pressure on Russia’s allies, slapping tariffs on India for buying Russian oil.

Trump, who recently disparaged Russia as a “paper tiger,” has also repeatedly threatened to put further sanctions on Russia itself but has so far held off, disappointing Kyiv and other Western partners.

Tomahawk talks could be a turning point for Russia, according to Peter Dickinson, editor of the Atlantic Council think tank’s Ukraine Alert publication. Dickinson on Tuesday said that this will be the case if Trump is willing to call Putin’s bluff by pledging to supply Tomahawks, regardless of whether he does end up doing so.

“Trump must now decide whether he will call Putin’s bluff and arm Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles. There are mounting indications that he may be inclined to do so,” Dickinson said. 

“Trump now has an opportunity to convince his Russian counterpart that he is not as easily intimidated as other Western leaders and is more than ready to increase the pressure on Moscow until Putin agrees to pursue peace,” he said in an online analysis.

“Many of Trump’s detractors will no doubt scoff at the idea of the U.S. president adopting such a uncompromising stance toward Putin, but few objective observers would question that this approach is the only way to end the war,” he said.