It’s a good time to increase exposure to bitcoin as stocks continue hitting new records and as the U.S. presidential election draws nearer, according to Bernstein. Bitcoin is again testing $70,000, something it’s done several times this year after reaching a new record above $73,000 in March. This time could be different, however, according to Bernstein. The end of “Uptober” (crypto investors’ name for bitcoin’s historically strongest month of the year) is around the corner; the U.S. general election, widely seen as a key catalyst (at least on a short-term basis) for bitcoin, will follow; demand for bitcoin ETFs is back; and the S & P 500 just sealed a six-week rally , Bernstein digital assets analysts wrote in a report Monday. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin has attempted to break through $70,000 several times this year “Bitcoin is attempting a break out of the $70,000 resistance (one more time) and like other risk-on markets, is interpreting rising Trump odds as bullish for crypto,” Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said in the note to investors. “With clear policy statements supporting crypto from the Harris campaign, the market seems less worried about downside and finds it attractive to bid here. Bitcoin ETF inflows, crypto equity markets and retail trading sentiment [are] screaming ‘risk-on.'” Earlier attempts led to brief forays above $70,000, but over the weekend bitcoin rose as high as $69,480, according to Coin Metrics. While some seen the election as binary, with a victory for former President Trump sending bitcoin to a new all-time high around $80,000 while a win for Vice President Harris could send it as low as about $40,000, the most bullish argue that bitcoin could hit six figures in 2025 regardless of the election result . Bernstein recommends seeking long exposure through bitcoin ETFs and some crypto-related stocks. “Bitcoin is back to strong ETF inflows with $2 billion [in] fresh purchases just last week,” Chhugani said. “Total YTD flows at $20.5 billion and assets under management crossed $63 billion. We believe the incremental ETF inflows are now increasingly leading to bitcoin spot demand given asset managers have focused on distribution to wealth advisors and wirehouses, unlike initial ETF demand which came from the spot-CME derivatives carry trade (mostly from hedge funds and Arb funds).” In stocks, he highlighted Robinhood , whose trading data and revenue indicate “continued risk on sentiment,” with Bernstein noting that its active trader base has seen 10% growth quarter-over-quarter, especially with the market expecting further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Chhugani also mentioned Riot Platforms , CleanSpark and Mara Holdings , which have all posted double digit gains in the past 30 days. Their outperformance “reflects underlying bullish sentiment for the bitcoin asset class vs. the compute/energy thesis, which investors have favored so far.” Bitcoin is up 9% in the same period. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
