After the scouting combine one year ago, NFL executives correctly predicted the first three choices in the 2024 draft: Caleb Williams to the Chicago Bears, Jayden Daniels to the Washington Commanders and Drake Maye to the New England Patriots. They got the fifth and ninth picks correct as well: Joe Alt to the Los Angeles Chargers and Rome Odunze to the Bears, respectively.
The batting average could be lower in 2025, with the potential for some outright whiffs.
“This is as hard as it has ever been,” one high-ranking team exec said from Indianapolis, “because there are only four to five really good players, and everybody else has holes in their game. It’s such a different draft.”
The 2025 draft will produce more than four to five really good players, but with 50 days to go, there’s less consensus about how teams might proceed. After running through the top 10 selections with five execs, I’ve singled out one of their ballots as a launching point for discussion and debate — complete with a potential surprise quarterback in the top 10 and divergent opinions on Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders.
1. Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward, QB, Miami
Teams have drafted quarterbacks No. 1 in six of the past seven drafts, eight of the past 10 and 12 of the past 16. It’s what teams do, except in unusual cases.
In a year when consensus mock drafts have teams drafting Ward among the top five picks, are we to believe Tennessee — a team that last held the top pick in 1978, when the franchise was the Houston Oilers — will pass up this rare chance to select the QB of its choice?
“Tennessee is not going to sign a mediocre quarterback in free agency and roll with him as their guy when they have the top pick in the draft,” the exec projecting Ward to the Titans said.
Most mocks have the Titans taking Abdul Carter, the pass rusher from Penn State.
“I don’t think they are not taking a quarterback,” another exec said. “I don’t think they are trading with anybody. I think they are going to pick Cam Ward and move on.”
A dissenting exec thought the Titans’ leadership, which includes president Chad Brinker and general manager Mike Borgonzi, would prefer Travis Hunter, the two-way star from Colorado. That led another exec to question the fit in Tennessee’s current defensive scheme, which prioritizes more physical cornerbacks — unless, of course, Hunter were to focus on wide receiver for now.
“They can go in about any direction,” this exec said.
2. Cleveland Browns: Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
Most execs do not see Sanders as a top-10 prospect. They think he holds the ball too long, lacks high-end traits and hit the wrong notes in combine interviews. Some fear he would be more likely to get a coach fired than help one earn an extension. Some said they had second-round grades on him.
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But let’s not overthink things.
“If you are the leadership of these two teams (Tennessee and Cleveland), even if you have the ability to sign one of those veteran guys, you can’t afford the opportunity cost for the chance that Cam Ward is a real guy, Shedeur Sanders is a real guy,” the exec projecting Ward and Sanders as the top two choices said.
Some teams will be scared off of Sanders.
“Not because of the kid, but because of the dad (Deion Sanders), the social media stuff and how it’s about him, not the team,” another exec said.
But Cleveland, not execs around the league, will be making this selection. Will the Browns be comfortable with him?
It’s been fascinating to watch how perceptions of Sanders have changed in the absence of games played.
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler mocked Sanders to the Giants at No. 3 on Dec. 4 and to the Raiders at No. 6 on Jan. 15. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com mocked Sanders to the Raiders on Feb. 3, noting that his “accuracy and confidence feel like a tempting combination for Tom Brady’s new squad.”
Then came the combine.
This week, Brugler mocked Sanders to Pittsburgh at No. 21, while Zierlein mocked Sanders to Cleveland at No. 29 after a Browns trade-up.
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“I think (the Browns) draft a quarterback (at 2),” another exec said.
3. New York Giants: Abdul Carter, Edge, Penn State
Would the Giants really invest in another edge rusher after using the fifth pick of the 2022 draft to select one (Kavon Thibodeaux) and then acquiring another (Brian Burns) from Carolina last offseason?
“You can never have enough rushers,” the exec projecting Carter to the Giants said. “Ask Philly.”
The assumption here was that the Giants, with no guarantees they’ll be able to draft the QB of their choosing, will address the position with a veteran in free agency or by trade. That would allow them to use the third pick on a foundational piece.
“They have two rushers in Thibodeaux and Burns who are the same position, the same style, the same everything,” another exec said. “I can’t imagine having three of those.”
Some execs thought Hunter would be the choice here. All the execs thought the Giants might be best off selecting an offensive lineman, but there were doubts regarding whether any of the tackle prospects merited selection this early, with Carter and Hunter still available.
4. New England Patriots: Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado
Execs agreed on one thing: New England needs to use this choice on offense, either to address the line or weaponry for quarterback Drake Maye.
“The fascinating thing about this draft is, offensive tackle is not great, corner is not great, receiver is not great,” an exec said. “Those are usually the positions that go early. Are they going to take Will Campbell, who is a left tackle, but maybe plays guard ultimately? That is hard to do. Are they going to take Mason Graham?”
Execs would feel better about the projection if Hunter fit the punishing physical profile associated with new coach Mike Vrabel, but in this case, premium talent won out.
“I haven’t seen a tackle on tape worth taking that early,” another exec said.
The exec whose top 10 was used here saw a big gap between Hunter and the other receivers and linemen available.
“I could see New England going Tetairoa McMillan, the top receiver, to give the quarterback somebody to throw to,” an exec who thought Hunter would be selected among the top three picks said. “I could see them going with the tight end, (Tyler) Warren, because he is so physical. They could see him as Gronk.”
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Mason Graham, DT, Michigan
The Jaguars could use help on their offensive line, so some execs had them selecting LSU’s Will Campbell. Even the exec projecting Graham to the Jaguars here leaned that way initially.
“They got the receiver they love last year (first-round pick Brian Thomas), and they’ve got some pass rushers, so if I’m Jacksonville in this spot, you are probably looking at the first O-lineman in the draft,” this exec said. “It might be Will Campbell.”
The exec then scanned a list of available players.
“Actually, you know who it is going to be? The D-tackle from Michigan, Mason Graham,” the exec said.
There’s some thought that the tackles in this draft project as guards in the NFL. The Jaguars’ top football executive, Hall of Fame tackle Tony Boselli, should know an elite offensive lineman when he sees one. What he thinks of the top blockers in this draft could inform this decision.
6. Las Vegas Raiders: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
The Raiders are difficult to figure because there are so many strong voices guiding their decisions, from minority owner Tom Brady to new GM John Spytek to coach Pete Carroll and even offensive coordinator Chip Kelly.
Execs thought Las Vegas would likely roll with a veteran quarterback instead of selecting one here. Carroll thinks the team makes the quarterback, more than the other way around, except in those rare cases when there’s a truly elite talent behind center.
“I could see Chip Kelly taking a Zach Wilson or somebody like that and reinventing him in his system,” an exec said.
Jeanty would supercharge the Raiders’ ground game, and if the defense plays well enough, the team might succeed with whatever quarterback it lands in the veteran market.
“Pete is dead set on running the ball,” an exec said. “He had Marshawn (Lynch) in Seattle. He is going to want the back here.”
7. New York Jets: Jaxson Dart, QB, Mississippi (or another QB)
Former Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum, who led the team’s search for its new coach and GM, recently called Dart the “clear” third QB in this draft. Was he priming expectations for the Jets to select Dart this early?
“They gotta get a quarterback, and this might be where Jaxson Dart goes,” the exec projecting Dart to the Jets said. “They are sitting there with Tyrod Taylor as their starter right now.”
So many of the available veteran options are Jets alums, from Aaron Rodgers to Sam Darnold to a potential reclamation project in Zach Wilson. Bringing back any of those QBs appears remote.
Could Jaxson Dart, or perhaps another QB, leap into the top 10? (James Gilbert / Getty Images)
Not everyone agrees with Tannenbaum’s contention that Dart should be the third quarterback in this class, but all agree the Jets appear desperate heading into free agency, with few appealing options. So we’ve penciled in a quarterback here, leaving open the chance it could be someone other than Dart.
“I think it’s going to be a quarterback, but we don’t know which one,” another exec said.
One name to keep in mind: Tyler Shough of Louisville.
Todd McShay, the former longtime ESPN draft analyst now with The Ringer, predicted Shough would be drafted ahead of Sanders.
Because Shough has had only one especially strong season, his stock could appear to rise late as teams work through his 2024 tape. His age (25) and injury history have worked against him so far, but some execs see him as a first-round talent with a shot at cracking the top 10.
8. Carolina Panthers: Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
In this scenario, the Panthers could choose between the top offensive lineman, the top receiver and the top tight end. Which direction might they go?
The exec projecting McMillan to the Panthers did not do so with great conviction.
“We get in trouble trying to overthink this,” he said.
McMillan would provide Panthers quarterback Bryce Young with a 6-foot-4, 220-pound target able to make spectacular catches, and contested ones. But he lacks the speed some see as a prerequisite for selecting a wideout this early.
“I could see them taking a receiver for sure, but McMillan does not play fast,” another exec said. “Maybe they take the (Matthew) Golden kid from Texas, or (Luther) Burden from Missouri.”
Burden is more in the Malik Nabers mold.
“He will be a top 12 pick,” one exec predicted.
What about Tyler Warren? That could be a luxury pick for a team with as many needs as the Panthers.
“The tight end (Warren) is going to go somewhere,” another exec said. “I don’t think he gets out of the top 10.”
9. New Orleans Saints: Kelvin Banks, OT, Texas
The Saints have needs throughout their roster, but the offensive line has been a big issue. Under this scenario, the Saints would have their choice of players at the position.
“Kelvin Banks is a clean culture guy fitting that New Orleans mold when it comes to the offensive line,” the exec projecting Banks to the Saints said.
Shemar Stewart, pass rusher from Texas A&M, was also mentioned here. But there was more consternation than conviction at this stage.
“Does everybody have this much trouble with this (exercise)?” one of the execs asked.
10. Chicago Bears: Will Campbell, OT, LSU
The Bears were fascinating for execs to handicap, on the assumption that new coach Ben Johnson will be a primary driver of decisions made atop the draft after six seasons with the Detroit Lions.
Not that we should expect the Bears to suddenly mirror Johnson’s former team, which used first-round picks on a linebacker (Jack Campbell) and running back (Jahmyr Gibbs) against expectations.
“Detroit had its offensive line already built,” an exec said.
Campbell was the choice here because he was still available the way things fell, but there were other options.
“Everything was about toughness and grit for Detroit,” the exec projecting Campbell to Detroit said. “The guard from Alabama (Tyler Booker) epitomizes that, but with Campbell still available, he’s a good choice for them.”
Most execs thought Chicago would prioritize its offensive line or pass rush here.
“They have to find a pass rusher,” another exec said. “I could see them making a play for Carter or one of those outside rushers.”
Editor’s note: This selection was made before the Bears traded for Joe Thuney.
(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos of Shedeur Sanders, center, Ashton Jeanty, left, and Travis Hunter: Stacy Revere, Justin Casterline / Getty Images)
