Stocks with large amounts of overseas revenue and strong pricing power could outperform if the U.S. engineers an effective dollar devaluation as part of White House trade talks, according to Jefferies. The greenback has already slipped around 7% on the year, and although there doesn’t appear to be a blatant catalyst to drive it further lower — Jefferies Global head of FX Brad Bechtel predicts a major regime change ahead. Specifically, Bechtel believes that a tacit agreement worked into trade negotiations with China could drag the USD down 15%. “An agreement — particularly with China — to weaken the USD could result in its first prolonged devaluation in 20Y+,” he wrote in a recent note. “This would increase the competitiveness of U.S. exports, bolster U.S. manufacturing and potentially lift the Chinese consumer by aiding domestic consumption.” “In short, this is more of a win-win solution than a diligent and protracted trade deal process,” Bechtel added. To that end, in the same note Jefferies analysts shared some stocks that could win big if the U.S. dollar does end up devaluing. These stocks all have the following characteristics: Revenue with significant overseas exposure, especially to China Considerable direct competition that is foreign domiciled Potential for pricing power as a commodity-driven business or service In the health care sector, Jefferies singled out life sciences stock Danaher as a winner should the greenback continue to weaken. Shares of Danaher have tumbled 18% this year, but the price target of $230 is approximately 22% above the stock closed on Monday afternoon. Jefferies currently has a buy rating on the company. The bank also singled out Repligen as a potential winner, although Jefferies sees the stock currently as a hold. “We view DHR and RGEN as particularly well positioned and note that both companies also have considerable ex-U.S. revenue exposure (~55% each),” Jefferies wrote. Meanwhile, in the consumer sector buy-rated Nike has a leg up over its peers, Jefferies said. “We think NKE is poised to benefit from improving trade balances both with China and Globally,” the bank wrote. “We forecast 52% of NKE’s revenues will come from International for FY’25, with 15% coming from Mainland China specifically. The value of these revenues will increase as the USD devalues.” Jefferies added: “Additionally, if the Euro and the CHF continue to appreciate, this can further increase NKE’s competitiveness considering its key peers — Adidas, Puma and On — are European companies.” Shares of Nike have stumbled 17% in 2025. Jefferies’ $115 price target is 83% above where the stock closed on Tuesday. Netflix, another name Jefferies has a buy rating on, has surged 36% this year. The stock closed at $1,211.51 could rally another TK% to Jefferies’ $1,200 per share price target. “A weakened USD should support NFLX on reaching the high-end of its FY25 rev guide of $43.5-44.5B,” the bank wrote. “It would also benefit its industry leading operating margins, giving it further earnings/FCF available for content investment vs. peers.”
