Analysts on Wall Street say expectations for Target’s second-quarter results due to be released before the opening bell on Wednesday are so low that the stock should be able to gain. The retailer’s earnings this week come alongside peer Walmart and a host of other leading big box retailers, in what’s shaping up as a key reading into the health of U.S. consumer spending. But Target’s forthcoming results come as the company has struggled in 2025. The stock is down 22% so far this year, and sales have been slowing for some time. The Minneapolis-based chain has seen investors and consumers alike question if the company will regain its previous luster . TGT YTD mountain Target stock in 2025. Earlier this year, Target slashed its full-year sales outlook over concerns tied to tariffs and sour consumer sentiment. But the bar has been set so low coming out of Target’s first-quarter results, it could pave the way for a rebound this quarter following Wednesday’s numbers, some analysts say. Analysts polled by FactSet estimate earnings per share of $2.04 in the quarter that ended July 31, down from $2.57 a year ago, on revenue of $24.9 billion, down from $25.5 billion. Here’s what analysts are saying ahead of Target’s second-quarter results. Evercore: Target added to tactical trading call Analyst Greg Melich’s $108 per share price target, in a base case, implies about 3% upside from Monday’s $104.96 close. “We see near term upside to the $110-$115 on the print, with a thought that the Street estimates are reasonable and that the guide is unlikely to be reduced,” Melich said in a Monday note. “Our view is that Target’s 2Q comp landed around -3% as our Second Measure data analysis suggests that Street has it about right. We see EPS at around $2.01 as reasonable, and we are in line with the Street (unchanged).” “In recent days much has been made of the Target/ Ulta partnership ending, yet we believe Target is hunting for new partners and/or opportunities to scale, for example with Warby Parker ,” he added. Morgan Stanley: Overweight, ‘undemanding valuation’ Analyst Simeon Gutman’s $112 per share price target implies roughly 7% upside. “Undemanding valuation limits downside, and comps appear to have recovered from the consumer disaffection episode, supporting upside near-term,” Gutman said. “Long-term visibility is clouded by necessary structural changes and potential management transition.” “Near-term, however, we believe comps appear to be showing sequential improvement, providing some relief given low expectation,” he added. TD Cowen: ‘Expectations are low’ The bank noted that investors have set low expectations for Target’s quarterly results. As the stock’s valuation has risen to a roughly 13 times forward price-to-earnings ratio, or about 15% since its last quarterly results, investors could be “bracing for the possibility of a ‘better-than-feared’ situation” according to analyst Oliver Chen “We like TGT’s amplified value focus but recent multiple expansion & 2Q miss even with [reiterated guidance] could hold stock back,” Chen said. The analyst’s hold rating and $100 per share price target calls for about 5% downside. Wells Fargo: Risk-to-reward skew on Target is ‘solid enough’ The Wall Street bank has an outperform rating on Target and a $115 per share price target, implying nearly 10% upside. “We have concerns about management’s ability to spark a sustained turnaround, but we continue to view TGT as a good brand, trends seems likely to improve from here, guidance seems reasonable and sentiment is particularly poor. Risk/reward on TGT as a contrarian idea seems solid enough,” analyst Edward Kelly said.
