Larry Ellison has banner year as Oracle gains most since dot-com boom

It’s been a good year for Larry Ellison.

Oracle’s co-founder has gained roughly $75 billion in paper wealth as the software company he started in 1979 enjoyed its biggest stock rally since 1999 and the dot-com boom.

While the S&P 500 index has gained 27% in 2024, Oracle shares have shot up 63%, lifting Ellison’s net worth to over $217 billion, according to Forbes, behind only Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos among the world’s richest people.

At 80, Ellison is a senior citizen in the tech industry, where his fellow billionaire founders are generally decades younger. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, whose net worth has also ballooned past $200 billion, is half his age.

But Ellison has found the fountain of youth both personally and professionally. After being divorced several times, Ellison was reported this month to be involved with a 33-year-old woman. And at a meeting with analysts in Las Vegas in September, Ellison was as engaged as ever, mentioning offhand that the night before, he and his son were having dinner with his good friend Musk, who’s advising President-elect Donald Trump (then the Republican nominee) while running Tesla and his other ventures.

His big financial boon has come from Oracle, which has maneuvered its way into the artificial intelligence craze with its cloud infrastructure technology and has made its databases more accessible.

ChatGPT creator OpenAI said in June that it will use Oracle’s cloud infrastructure. Earlier this month, Oracle said it had also picked up business from Meta.

Startups, which often opt for market leader Amazon Web Services when picking a cloud, have been engaging Oracle as well. Last year, video generation startup Genmo set up a system to train an AI model with Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs) in Oracle’s cloud, CEO Paras Jain said. Genmo now relies on the Oracle cloud to produce videos based on the prompts that users type in on its website.

“Oracle produced a different product than what you can get elsewhere with GPU computing,” Jain said. The company offers “bare metal” computers that can sometimes yield better performance than architectures that employ server virtualization, he said.

In its latest earnings report earlier this month, Oracle came up short of analysts’ estimates and issued a forecast that was also weaker than Wall Street was expecting. The stock had its worst day of 2024, falling almost 7% and eating into the year’s gains.

Still, Ellison was bullish for the future.

“Oracle Cloud Infrastructure trains several of the world’s most important generative AI models because we are faster and less expensive than other clouds,” Ellison said in the earnings release.

For the current fiscal year, which ends in May, Oracle is expected to record revenue growth of about 10%, which would mark its second-strongest year of expansion since 2011.

Jain said that when Genmo has challenges, he communicates with Oracle sales executives and engineers through a Slack channel. The collaboration has resulted in better reliability and performance, he said. He said Oracle worked with Genmo to ensure that developers could launch the startup’s Mochi open-source video generator on Oracle’s cloud hardware with a single click.

“Oracle was also more price-competitive than these large hyperscalers,” Jain said.

Three months before its December earnings report, at the analyst event in Las Vegas, Oracle had given a rosy outlook for the next three years. Executive Vice President Doug Kehring declared that the company would produce more than $66 billion in revenue in the 2026 fiscal year, and over $104 billion in fiscal 2029. The numbers suggested acceleration, with a compound annual growth rate of over 16%, compared with 9% in the latest quarter.

After Kehring and CEO Safra Catz spoke, it was Ellison’s turn. The company’s chairman, technology chief and top shareholder strutted onto the stage in a black sweater and jeans, waved to the analysts, licked his lips and sat down. For the next 74 minutes, he answered questions from seven analysts.

“Did — did he say $104 billion?” Ellison said, referring to Kehring’s projection. Some in the crowd giggled. “That’s going to be so easy. It is kind of crazy.”

Oracle’s revenue in fiscal 2023 was just shy of $50 billion.

The new target impressed Eric Lynch, managing director of Scharf Investments, which held $167 million in Oracle shares at the end of September.

“For a company doing single digits for a decade or so, that’s unbelievable,” Lynch told CNBC in an interview.

Oracle is still far behind in cloud infrastructure. In 2023, Amazon controlled 39% share of market, followed by Microsoft at 23% and Google at 8.2%, according to industry researcher Gartner. That left Oracle with 1.4%.

But in database software, Oracle remains a stalwart. Gartner estimated that the company had 17% market share in database management systems in 2023.

Ellison’s challenge is to find opportunities for expansion.

Last year, he visited Microsoft headquarters in Redmond Washington, for the first time to announce a partnership that would enable organizations to use Oracle’s database through Microsoft’s Azure cloud. Microsoft even installed Oracle hardware in its data centers.

In June, Oracle rolled out a similar announcement with Google. Then, in September, Oracle finally partnered with Amazon, introducing its database on AWS.

Oracle and Amazon had exchanged barbs for years. AWS introduced a database called Aurora in 2014, and Amazon worked hard to move itself off Oracle. Following a CNBC report on the effort, Ellison expressed doubt about Amazon’s ability to reach its goal. But the project succeeded.

In 2019, Amazon published a blog post titled, “Migration Complete – Amazon’s Consumer Business Just Turned off its Final Oracle Database.”

Ellison looked back on the history between the two companies at the analyst meeting in September.

“I got kind of got cute commenting about Amazon uses Oracle, doesn’t use AWS, blah, blah,” he said. “And that hurt some people’s feelings. I probably shouldn’t have said it.”

He said a friend at a major New York bank had asked him to make sure the Oracle database works on AWS.

“I said, ‘Great. It makes sense to me,'” Ellison said.

The multi-cloud strategy should deliver gains in database market share, said analyst Siti Panigrahi of Mizuho, which has the equivalent of a buy rating on Oracle shares. Cloud deals related to AI will also help Oracle deliver on its promise for faster revenue growth, he said.

“Oracle right now has an end-to-end stack for enterprises to build their AI strategy,” said Panigrahi, who worked on applications at Oracle in the 2000s.

So far, Oracle has been mainly cutting high-value AI deals with the likes of OpenAI and Musk’s X.ai. Of Oracle’s $97 billion in remaining performance obligations, or revenue that hasn’t yet been recognized, 40% or 50% of it is tied to renting out GPUs, Panigrahi said.

Oracle didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Panigrahi predicts that a wider swath of enterprises will begin adopting AI, which will be a boon to Oracle given its hundreds of thousands of big customers.

There’s also promise in Oracle Health, the segment that came out of the company’s $28.2 billion acquisition of electronic health record software vendor Cerner in 2022.

Unlike rival Epic, Oracle Health lost U.S. market share in 2023, according to estimates from KLAS Research. But Ellison’s connection to Musk, who is set to co-lead Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency, might benefit Oracle Health “if there is a bigger push towards modernizing existing healthcare systems,” analysts at Evercore said in a note last week. They recommend buying the stock.

For now, Oracle is busy using AI to rewrite Cerner’s entire code base, Ellison said at the analyst event.

“This is another pillar for growth,” he said. “I think you haven’t quite seen it yet.”

Hours earlier, Ellison had put in a call to Marc Benioff, the co-founder and CEO of Salesforce. Benioff knows Ellison as well as anyone, having worked for him for 13 years before starting the cloud software company that’s now a big competitor.

“It was awesome,” Benioff said in a wide-ranging interview the next day, regarding his chat with Ellison.

Benioff spoke about his former boss’s latest run of fortune.

“Larry really deeply wants this,” Benioff said. “This is very important to him, that he is building a great company, what he believes is one of the most important companies in the world, and also, wealth is very important to him.”

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