The Kansas City Chiefs are still standing, but they’ve still got to deal with some heavyweights ready to finally add some new fingerprints to the Lombardi Trophy.
With the conference championship games upon us, it’s still all about the Chiefs’ quest to become the first three-peat Super Bowl winners. They’re just two wins away from football immortality, but joining them in the NFL’s Final Four are a pair of opponents desperate for a title and a new squad eager to crash the party.
There’s a 50-50 chance to get a Super Bowl rematch. If the two hosts win this weekend, the Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles will enact a second take of Super Bowl LVII. If it’s the two road winners, though, the Buffalo Bills and Washington Commanders will renew acquaintances from a lifetime ago at Super Bowl XXVI.
Once again, The Athletic has solicited a panel of coaches and executives from around the league to predict the winners. As a reminder, picks were not solicited from anyone in the panel if their team is involved in one of the games this weekend.
No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5) at No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET Sunday
Expert picks: Eagles 9, Commanders 3
Jayden Daniels is the sixth rookie quarterback to lead his team to a conference championship game, and he’ll try to be the first to win one.
His journey has been the most impressive, albeit due to a merit that will make his next task all the more daunting. The previous five rookie QBs — Shaun King (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1999), Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers, 2004), Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens, 2008), Mark Sanchez (New York Jets, 2009), Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers, 2022) — all got this far with a defense that was ranked in the top three in points allowed. Roethlisberger, Sanchez and Purdy did it with No. 1 defenses.
Daniels has led the Commanders to the NFC title game with the backing of the No. 18 defense in the league.
“The quarterback is going to continue to be the X-factor until teams can sit down and really study how to attack him,” a personnel executive said. “He looks totally comfortable and in command. He’s not rattled. He understands where the pressures are going to come from. Teams haven’t been able to pressure or rattle him because of his ability to run. That’s been a huge neutralizer.”
Daniels has led 11 scoring drives on 16 playoff possessions, excluding kneeldowns. They’ve punted once and haven’t committed a turnover. Their three turnovers on downs and a missed field goal were all inside their opponents’ 30-yard line, so Daniels has driven the Commanders into scoring range on a cool 93.8 percent of their possessions.
They’re averaging 31.3 points per outing during their seven-game winning streak, including a 36-33 victory against the Eagles in Week 16.
GO DEEPER
Terry McLaurin is Commanders’ ‘Transformer’ who’s deeply respected throughout Washington
“The Commanders are playing great, but at some point that run has to come to an end, right?” the executive added. “(Head coach Dan Quinn) is special. The quarterback is special. (But the Eagles’) running game is just too strong.”
The Eagles averaged 218.5 rushing yards as they split the season series with their NFC East rivals, so they’ve proven they can run the ball on the Commanders. With Saquon Barkley’s production all season and into the playoffs, it’d be foolish to expect any other type of performance.
But will it matter? Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been shaky in his two games since returning from the concussion that he suffered in the loss to Washington. Hurts is 28-of-41 passing for 259 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in the playoffs, and he’s added 106 yards and a score on the ground. But those inefficiencies have led to meager showings from wideouts A.J. Brown (three receptions, 24 yards) and DeVonta Smith (eight receptions, 76 yards).
“I don’t think Jalen can beat them throwing the ball,” an executive said. “But if (Barkley and Hurts) are both going in the running game, they’re really, really hard to beat. If Washington can stop (Barkley), they have a chance.”
The Eagles have been winning, so it’s not a problem, and they’re effective in key situations. But if they don’t establish themselves Sunday as the aggressor, the Commanders’ confidence will continue to grow. They’ve been unflappable in late situations, most recently in their late wild-card win against the Buccaneers, but they were also clutch throughout their upset of the top-seeded Lions, scoring on 4-of-5 possessions (with the exception being a missed field goal) after Detroit scored.
The Eagles have the best offensive line remaining in the playoffs, and Hurts needs to take advantage of it. While they’ve carried their weight in the running game, Hurts took seven sacks and a safety in the divisional round against the Los Angeles Rams. He hasn’t seen some open receivers, which could again be due to the injury-related absence.
“(The Eagles are) a much more complete team,” a coach said. “If the QB takes care of it and avoids taking seven sacks, including a safety, I like their chances of winning big.”
The game will likely be decided by fourth-down conversions and takeaways. The Commanders are 6-of-9 on fourth down in the postseason, a carryover from going 20-of-23 during the regular season, and that was a huge catalyst in both of their victories. The Eagles are 2-for-2 in the playoffs and went 19-of-27 during the season, as they’ve ridden Hurts’ tush push to more success.
Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, whose group allowed the second-fewest points in the league in the regular season, might try to get creative on first and second down to slow down Daniels’ reads and force the Commanders into long-yardage situations that could take fourth down off the board.
“Fangio will add a wrinkle or two to confuse Daniels,” an executive said.
The Eagles have 30 takeaways over their last 13 games, including a 6-0 edge in the turnover battle in the playoffs. They forced two crucial fumbles in the fourth quarter against the Rams.
The Commanders also have a 6-0 advantage in turnovers in the playoffs after snagging five takeaways against the Lions. And they overcame a 5-2 takeaway margin five weeks ago to beat the Eagles.
“This game could be a great one,” a coach said.
Coach Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs are 3-0 against coach Sean McDermott’s Buffalo Bills in the playoffs. (Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)
No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4) at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday
Expert picks: Chiefs 7, Bills 6
This has been the NFL’s most exciting rivalry over the past half-decade, and it fittingly drew the most tightly contested vote during the playoffs from our panel.
The outcome boils down to a key determination: Is Patrick Mahomes inevitable, or has Josh Allen become invincible?
The Chiefs have won all three playoff meetings with the Bills over the past four years, including the AFC Championship Game following the 2020 season. But since 2021, the Bills have gone 4-0 against the Chiefs in regular-season meetings.
It’s not that the Chiefs have been decisively better than the Bills as both organizations rose to prominence. But it’s undeniable the Chiefs have displayed the superior clutch gene because they’ve swept the matchups on the more important stage.
“Should be a phenomenal back-and-forth game,” a coach said. “It will go down to the wire.”
GO DEEPER
What makes Andy Reid the screen master? Chiefs players and coaches reveal his genius
The Chiefs won last year in the divisional round, 27-24, thanks to running back Isiah Pacheco’s decisive 4-yard touchdown run on the second play of the fourth quarter. Allen and the offense failed to score over their final three possessions, including Tyler Bass’ missed 44-yard field goal with 1:43 remaining.
Three years ago, Allen walked off the field with 13 seconds to play and a 36-33 lead in his pocket. He never touched the ball again, as the Chiefs won in overtime.
“Although I think this could be the year Buffalo gets over the hump, I just can’t get past the history,” another coach said. “The Chiefs defense will be the difference and force a few key turnovers.”
The Chiefs have been slightly off all season, evidenced by several close calls and crucial mistakes by their opponents. But that was the case in 2023, as well, and they cruised in the postseason. Their decisive victory last week against the Houston Texans, who controlled nearly every vital statistical category, provided more evidence the Chiefs can handle their opposition’s best shot and still advance.
After all, the Chiefs have won 16 consecutive games that were decided by one possession.
“I don’t have a good reason (to pick the Bills) other than percentages,” an executive said. “(The Chiefs) can’t keep winning like this, can they? The Bills have been better than the teams the Chiefs have been playing.”
When two teams know each other so well and have grown accustomed to meeting in such a high-stakes environment, the matchups on paper might not carry as much weight. It’s more about having a feel for the game, making appropriate adjustments and avoiding season-crushing mistakes.
“The (Chiefs) defense is better, and I can’t see Mahomes losing at home against a defense that can’t deny the ball,” another coach said.
Those gut reactions can go the other way, too.
“This Buffalo team feels like they are the most connected team and will do anything to win,” another executive said.
A coach added, “It’s Josh Allen’s year.”
(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic; photos: Mitchell Leff, Bryan Bennett and Kara Durrette / Getty Images)
