Trump tariffs could raise prices on laptops, smartphones and AI

The world’s most valuable chipmaker and the world’s largest contract manufacturer for electronics announced in November that Foxconn was building a massive factory in Guadalajara, Mexico, to assemble Nvidia’s artificial intelligence servers.

Starting in early 2025, Nvidia would start producing its hotly demanded GB200 NVL72 server racks in Mexico, the two companies said.

That announcement reflects what could be at risk if President Donald Trump’s blanket tariffs go into effect. Trump is expected to reveal more details on which specific tariffs will be placed on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico on Saturday. 

With Apple, Microsoft and Tesla reporting their December quarter earnings this week, investors will want to know how Trump’s threats of blanket tariffs on the country’s top trading partners could affect their businesses.

Those firms already grappled with proposed tariffs on consumer products from China in 2018, as well as China’s retaliation. But Trump’s proposed tariffs on electronics from Mexico would be a new wrinkle. 

That’s because many companies specifically expanded production in the country in a so-called nearshoring effort in response to Covid disruptions and the tariffs from the first Trump administration.

“If we increase the tariffs on Mexico, it’s actually penalizing the companies that have been very progressive and trying to make great strides and restructure their supply chain,” said Richard Barnett, chief marketing officer of Supplyframe, a Siemens subsidiary that makes software which tracks electronics component prices and lead times.

Electronic products imports from Mexico rose from $86 billion in 2019 to $103 billion in 2023, or about 18% of total electronics imports, according to the International Trade Commission. It’s the second-largest source for electronic products imports in the U.S. after China, which reported $146 billion in imports in 2023.

In addition to Foxconn, Chinese electronics manufacturers Lenovo and Hisense made splashy announcements in the past few years about building factories in Mexico. Flex, a Singapore-based contract manufacturer for gadgets and electronics, says it is the largest exporter in the Mexican state of Jalisco.

Trump may be looking to close a “loophole” where Chinese companies can avoid tariffs on their end by expanding in Mexico, said Simon Geale, executive vice president of Proxima, a supply chain consultancy that’s part of Bain & Co. 

“If you look at Chinese investment into Mexico, it has gone through the roof in the last three to five years,” Geale said. 

Even with Mexico’s growth, China is still the biggest source for electronics imports in the U.S. It accounts for 78% of production of smartphones, 87% of video game consoles and 79% of laptops, according to the trade group the Consumer Technology Association, or CTA. About a quarter of Chinese imports were electronic products.

While high-value and high-margin products like Nvidia’s GPUs are less sensitive to tariffs, many of the secondary parts needed to construct multibillion-dollar AI data centers — communications, storage and power management parts, for example — are vulnerable to price changes and import duties, Barnett said. Supplyframe’s price index shows a 6% year-over-year increase for electronic components in the fourth quarter of 2024, after Trump started threatening tariffs.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was asked about the potential impact of tariffs in November, shortly after Trump’s election victory. 

“Whatever the new administration decides, we’ll, of course, support the administration, and that’s our highest mandate. And then after that, we do the best we can and just as we always do,” Huang said at the time, adding that the company would comply with regulations.

Foxconn did not respond to a request for comment, and Nvidia declined to comment.

Trade groups, academics and even the chief of the World Trade Organization warn that trade wars spurred by Trump’s tariffs could slow global commerce and raise prices for consumers. Analysts have said the Trump administration may be looking at the tariffs as a way to negotiate with other countries over issues such as drug trafficking and migration, although the president has denied this.

“The four big implications of tariffs that I foresee are higher prices, fewer rate cuts from the Fed, slower growth and fewer new jobs,” said Brett House, professor of professional practice at Columbia Business School.

It’s still unclear exactly how large the tariffs could be this time around. 

On the campaign trail, Trump talked about tariffs of up to 60% on China and 10% on all other imports. In his first week in office, Trump has backed off from the largest duties, discussing a 10% tariff across the board from Mexico and Canada and a 25% tariff on goods from China.

A 60% tariff on China would be a huge blow to American consumers, according to a report by the CTA.

Laptop and tablet prices might increase by 45%, video game consoles by as much as 40% and smartphones by as much as 26%. That’s a $213 increase in the average price of a smartphone, according to the CTA.

“It’ll affect the unit sales, meaning that each product will go up in price significantly,” CTA CEO Gary Shapiro said.

A key difference between these tariffs and the ones from 2018 is that Trump has threatened placing tariffs that could apply to all products, whereas the 2018 tariffs were targeted on specific product codes and categories, and companies could apply for waivers for their goods. 

Whether Trump follows through on placing tariffs across the board remains to be seen. The Washington Post reported earlier this month that the Trump administration is considering imposing fees only on certain sectors.

Experts at Columbus Consulting, a consulting firm focused on retailers, say their clients have already shifted budgets to account for increased costs. The firm is recommending that clients hold off on drastic measures – such as moving production into other countries or aggressively stockpiling extra inventory in advance – until they know what exactly will go into effect.

“We need to see the definition of what’s going to be tariffed and how much and when, and specifically which products,” said Jeff Gragg, managing partner at Columbus Consulting. “Until we get more specifics around it, overreacting can only put you in a dangerous position.”

Attempts to mitigate tariff expenses can end up being costly, whether that’s the increased price of freight or the opportunity cost of tying up capital in inventory, Gragg said. Some firms will have to pass the costs on to consumers, he said.

But the current uncertainty around import duties isn’t necessarily a sea change from the past few years. 

Some electronics still have tariffs on them from Trump’s first term. Semiconductors from China currently have a 50% tariff, for example. The Biden administration largely kept the import duty regime from the first Trump administration in place, giving firms a few years with less drastic changes, but many still had to grapple with import duties.

“Supply chains thrive on predictability, and the only thing that’s predictable about Trump is that he’s going to be unpredictable,” Geale said.