President Donald Trump’s tariff order on steel imports could be a boon for a handful of domestic metal stocks, according to Goldman Sachs. Steel stocks surged Monday on the news, with the group gaining roughly 7%, Goldman noted. The S & P 500 by contrast added 1%. The Wall Street investment bank views the tariffs — a 25% duty on all steel and aluminum coming into the U.S. regardless of country of origin — as a catalyst to help keep steel prices high. Goldman analyst Mike Harris wrote in a note on Tuesday that the duties could keep out lower-priced imports and support domestic plant utilization, while also raising the global floor price. “Recent channel checks indicated a common conviction among industry participants that steel demand is likely to improve [year-over-year] in 2025 on increased construction and infrastructure investments, select inventory rebuild, some import displacement, and more manufacturing re-shoring with the second half of 2025 demand expected to be stronger than the first half,” Harris wrote. Against an improved demand picture and an uptick in sentiment, Goldman is more optimistic on steelmakers Nucor Corp , Commercial Metals and Cleveland-Cliffs , all of which it rates buy. Harris thinks earnings for steel stocks will improve. “We see a path to better earnings for steel companies as interest rates trend lower, stimulus spending on infrastructure picks up, and near-shoring manufacturing continues to gain momentum,” Harris said. The firm’s $177 price target on Nucor shares implies more than 28% upside over the next 12 months, from Monday’s $137.53 close. For Commercial Metals, Goldman has a $70 per share price target, suggesting 38% upside from the close of $50.80 on Monday. Goldman’s $16 per share price target on Cleveland-Cliffs implies more than 35% upside ahead. “As we move beyond the seasonal slow period, we expect the narrative to remain constructive on company and U.S. steel industry outlooks. In our opinion, the steel stocks could continue to rally from the current levels,” Harris added. SLX 1Y mountain VanEck Steel ETF over the past year
