How Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada will sweep across US states

According to President Donald Trump, the sweeping U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are coming.

The tariffs set to begin next week “will go forward” when a monthlong delay expires, Trump said Monday, and they will begin “on time, on schedule.”

If the administration follows through, the impact on economies across the U.S. will be extensive, though it will vary greatly from state to state. Texas and California, which have the biggest state economies, will be hit the hardest in absolute dollar values. But many states have massive exposure to trade from the two North American economic partners and will experience shocks to local economies, on top of the ongoing hit from tariffs on China.

Consider Montana, which tops the list of states importing from China, Canada and Mexico, with 94% of the state’s total imports coming from these three nations.

“We’re the United States of America, but we’re also 50-plus individual economies, and like snowflakes, none are exactly alike. That’s certainly true when it comes to trade,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst for LendingTree. The online lending marketplace recently ran an analysis of all 50 states, based on U.S. Census Bureau data, to determine where consumers are most vulnerable to tariffs, which directly affect the prices consumers pay, at a time when inflation is already straining American wallets.

Its report shows wide disparities between the states, with some, such as Montana, doing a vast majority of their trade with Canada, China, and Mexico, while other states do little.

The flow of trade is one of the key components for the functioning of a country’s economy. Each state in the U.S. contributes to the nation’s overall gross domestic product, or GDP, but it is each state’s trade relationship with different countries that support its local economies. This is why trade reliance is such a significant factor for economies across the U.S.

To look at the impact of both the Trump tariffs on North American partners and the retaliatory tariffs Trump has planned for other global trading partners, CNBC analyzed data on imports and exports of all 50 states and the District of Columbia provided by LendingTree. ImportGenius provided additional granular data on the products. Using Customs code analysis, each state’s exports and imports with China, Canada, and Mexico were aggregated to specific products. This specificity granularity can show a state’s economic risk exposure which could affect jobs and economic prosperity.

The biggest state losers from upcoming tariffs

After Montana, New Mexico has the second-most exposure to imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, with 77% of its imports coming from these three countries. Vermont is third with 75%.

States with the least exposure were Hawaii, with a total of 13% of imports from these three nations, followed by New Jersey (21%), and Maryland (23%).

Data from ImportGenius shows items imported range from auto parts to frozen strawberries for Montana, from pickled jalapenos to laparoscopic surgery equipment for New Mexico, and coffee beans to industrial electrical equipment for Vermont. 

“Mexico, Canada, and China are our top trading partners, so U.S. imports from them aren’t confined to a handful of major categories,” said William George, director of research for ImportGenius. “Goods sourced from these countries can be found on any store shelf and used in any imaginable industry. We are talking oil, electronics, and auto goods [which] dominate U.S. imports by sheer dollar value.”

Biggest state hits from Canada, Mexico, China specifically

CNBC also looked at the exposure of all 50 states and the District of Columbia on a country-by-country basis. This correlation showed the risk the states would have on both imports from and exports to the three countries.

The 10 states that have the highest percentage of imports from Canada are: Montana (92%), Maine (69.4%), Vermont (68%), North Dakota (64%), Wyoming (55%), Oklahoma (51%), West Virginia (44%), South Dakota (41%), Minnesota (38%), and Colorado (31%).

Energy was the top-dollar import from Canada for all states.

The 10 states whose biggest share of imports comes from Mexico are: New Mexico (41%), Michigan (40.3%), Texas (37.3%), Arizona (33.2%), Utah (26.2%), Alabama (22%), Iowa (21%), Louisiana (18.4%), Missouri (18%), and Connecticut (16%).

The 10 states with the biggest percentage of imports from China are: California (27%), New Mexico (26.4%), Nevada (22%), Illinois (20.3%), Tennessee (19%), District of Columbia (19%), Washington (18%), Virginia (17%), Pennsylvania (16%), and Missouri (16%).

“The truth is that there’s risk for any state in having too much of its trade involve a single product or a single trade partner,” Schulz said. “It is the same reason why so many people want side hustles alongside their day job. It is a way of hedging your bets and protecting yourself in case things go south.”

Oil, auto parts, phones and Tesla

Taking a deeper dive into the six-digit Customs code numbers that detail product type, by state dollar value, the biggest imports from China, Canada and Mexico were oil, vehicles and vehicle parts, and smartphones.

“Each of these major categories represents a huge slice of state GDPs well beyond the visible import volume,” said George. “For example, Michigan’s auto and auto parts imports support an automotive and mobility industry which contributes over $300 billion to the state’s economy yearly.”

The amount of oil imported from Canada is staggering.

“While this is something we know and is not breaking news, to see the state-by-state breakdown is really something,” Schulz said.

For example, the value of the oil that Montana imports from Canada — $4.9 billion — is more than 10 times the value of the state’s next biggest import. Oklahoma, in the heart of a key U.S. drilling region, imports “an enormous amount of oil from Canada, especially given how much oil the state and its neighbors in Texas produce,” he said.

Beer imports are another big item. Customs data shows that Illinois imports way more beer from these three countries than any other state, according to LendingTree’s analysis — $5.2 billion in beer from Mexico. The next highest on this list was Texas, at $239 million. 

Among automakers, Tesla will be hit, given its exposure to the EV battery trade.

“Tesla has a strong presence in the two states importing the most lithium-ion batteries from China: California and Texas,” said George. “Since 2023, Tesla has brought in over 12,000 twenty-foot equivalent containers (TEUs) of the batteries between the two states. That’s at least 100 million lithium batteries for Texas and California alone.”

A single Cybertruck has more than 1,300 lithium-ion battery cell components, according to published estimates.

U.S. states facing exports retaliatory risk

Exports are a main driver for both national and state GDP, and states will also face retaliatory tariffs pressure from trading partners.

LendingTree’s data shows that the states that face the greatest tariff risk, with at least two-thirds of their exports going to Canada, Mexico and China, are: North Dakota (88%), New Mexico (79%), and South Dakota (72%.)

North Dakota exports a massive amount of oil to Canada, totaling more than 80% of its overall exports as a state. In New Mexico, computer components exported to Mexico make up 70% of the state’s total exports.

“Any retaliatory tariffs by those countries or focused on those industries could have a very significant effect on the state’s economy,” Schulz said.

Export revenues from North Dakota were $7.7 billion, followed by New Mexico ($4 billion), and South Dakota ($1.7 billion).

The three states (including the District of Columbia) with the least risk of exposure to retaliatory tariffs from Canada, Mexico, or China are the District of Columbia (0.70%), Hawaii (6%), and Florida (16.2%).

Looking at the top 10 states that export to Canada, North Dakota topped the list (82%), followed by Maine (49%), Montana (46%), South Dakota (44%), Michigan (43%), Ohio (39%), West Virginia (38%), Idaho (37%), Missouri (37%), and Vermont (34%). Top exports include agriculture: soybeans, corn, live and frozen beef, pigs, fish, and poultry.

The top 10 states exporting to Mexico are New Mexico (70%), Texas (29%), Arizona (28%), Oregon (24%), Michigan (23%), Missouri (22%), South Dakota (21%), Kansas (20%), California (19%) and Nebraska (18%).

Top states that export to China include Alaska (22%), Washington (18%), Oregon (15%), North Carolina (14%), Louisiana (14%), Alabama (13.6%), South Carolina (10.4%), California (9.4%), Massachusetts (9.4%), and West Virginia (9.3%).

From northern to southern borders, how states will feel the pain

Two examples of state economies dependent on a reciprocal trade relationship are the cross-border trades involving Maine and New Mexico. Analysis shows the trickle-down impact of transborder trade and jobs.

Maine depends on Canadian trade for its imports, and the state’s exports play an important role in its economy. According to Customs data, Maine businesses exported $3 billion worth of goods in 2023. Exports also help support the seafood industry, which is important to the state in terms of jobs. SEA Maine, the Seafood Economic Accelerator for Maine, an industry-led initiative of leaders in Maine’s commercial fishing, aquaculture, and seafood economy, found in its 2023 jobs analysis that Maine’s seafood sector, which has a total economic output of $3.2 billion, represented over 33,000 jobs. Compared with the rest of the nation, fishing and aquaculture employment is 20 times more concentrated in Maine.

According to a report by MDF, a nonpartisan statewide group focused on sustainable economic growth in Maine, Maine’s seafood exports dropped $88 million (18%) in 2023, “likely due in part to China’s tariff on U.S. lobster.”

Sales of forest products, aircraft parts, and mineral fuels also fell, while sales of electrical machinery, chemical products, and prepared food rose. Canada remains Maine’s leading trade partner, with $1.4 billion in exports in 2023, followed by Malaysia, China, Mexico and Japan.

At the U.S. southern border, New Mexico exported over $1.6 billion in computer components used for autos and other devices manufactured in Mexico in 2023. On the import side, New Mexico’s top product from Mexico in 2023 was medical devices for surgery and dental procedures ($983.1 million).

While these numbers in the aggregate don’t portray the impact on daily life, the trade flows reach companies upon which consumers depend for products, from lifesaving devices to personal electronics. A tissue sealer electrosurgical device exported from Mexico to New Mexico was delivered to Johnson & Johnson. Lenovo in Mexico received RAM chips and server chassis cases from New Mexico.

“These are great examples of goods traded between the U.S. and Mexico,” said George. “Canada, Mexico, and China are our top trading partners and their goods play an important role in all domestic industries.”