We’re doing our NBA Awards Watch every Thursday until the end of the regular season, and each week we’ll emphasize a new award. This week, we’ve got Rookie of the Year.
Sandwiched between the class with Victor Wembanyama and the upcoming Cooper Flagg sweepstakes, this rookie class has been one we’ve known isn’t likely to deliver a future star or franchise-changer for a while. But there are still some good role players in the mix. That has made me wonder whether we’ve seen similar ROY races in the past. We’ll get into that below.
For the criteria I use for each award, check out our initial Awards Watch from this season. It explains how I, and a lot of the voting history, look at the six major individual awards. We’ll go heavy on Rookie of the Year here and give quick-hit thoughts for the other awards. All betting odds are courtesy of BetMGM.
Rookie of the Year
We haven’t had a lot of duds when it comes to the Rookie of the Year winners. By duds, I mean players who eventually ended up being mediocre or afterthought players in the NBA. Let’s take it back 40 years to 1985 when Michael Jordan won the award. In the last four decades, the worst Rookie of the Year winners are probably Chuck Person (1987), Mike Miller (2001), Tyreke Evans (2010), Michael Carter-Williams (2014) and Malcolm Brogdon (2017).
Person, however, had a 13-year career and put up 19.0 points per game in his first six seasons with Indiana. Miller had a 17-year career, averaged double-digit scoring, was named Sixth Man of the Year and won two titles with the Miami Heat. Evans had a historic start to his career, but eventually, foot and knee issues and a suspension for violating the antidrug program cut his career short. Carter-Williams was traded the year after winning Rookie of the Year, and we all knew his rookie numbers were inflated by the Trust the Process Sixers. He was quickly relegated to a supporting role and didn’t last in rotations very long after.
The example most akin to what we’re seeing in this 2024-25 rookie class is what happened with the Rookie of the Year campaign in 2016-17. That was the year a second-round pick ended up winning the award because a Philadelphia 76ers rookie simply didn’t play enough games to garner enough votes to justify taking home the trophy.
Do you see how we’re already starting to connect the dots? That was Joel Embiid’s third season in the NBA but first year on the court due to injuries. Embiid only played 31 games in that season, but he averaged 20.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 2.5 blocks in just 25.4 minutes per game. It was the equivalent of averaging 28.7 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.5 blocks and 3.0 assists if he played 36 minutes a night. That’s historic!
Embiid was the best rookie in the class, and it was a legitimate conversation of whether 31 games was enough to be named Rookie of the Year. Jaylen Brown and Jamal Murray were in that class, but they didn’t have significant rookie seasons. Embiid’s biggest competition was Dario Šarić, Brogdon and the concept of availability. Embiid finished third in ROY voting that season, garnering 23 of the 100 first-place votes and 177 of the 900 voting points.
Šarić received only 13 first-place votes but was on more ballots to give him 269 voting points. Brogdon ran away with the award with 64 first-place votes and 414 voting points. Brogdon was the 36th pick in the draft, and his numbers didn’t blow anybody away. He averaged 10.2 points, 4.2 assists and 2.8 rebounds in 26.4 minutes per game. He also was very efficient with 45.7/40.4/86.5 shooting splits, and he started 28 of the 75 games he played in for the Milwaukee Bucks. No offense to Brogdon, but it felt like he won by default — because he played, not because he played the best.
Fast-forward to this season, and we’ve got a similar thing happening. Jared McCain is not Embiid by any stretch, but he does look like he’s capable of being a great role player. McCain is by far the best rookie we’ve seen this season, but he’s played 23 games and is out for the season with a knee injury. He averaged 15.3 points in 25.3 minutes with a 58.9 true shooting percentage. No other rookie can really approach that level of production.
This year, once again, we might end up seeing a second-round pick take the award.
Two honorable mentions: Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks | Kel’el Ware, Miami Heat
3. Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies (Last week: 3)
Edey has a pretty good case across the board for being the pick, although we’re not certain he’s even the best rookie on his own team. His numbers have been really good for most of the season. He’s averaging 9.2 points, 7.9 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in 20.9 minutes. And generally, the Grizzlies are good with him on the floor, so he’s not some rookie taking away from what a good team is trying to do. What hurts his case is he missed 15 games this season and probably needs to play at least half the game to truly get into the mix. He’s good, though. Edey has the fourth-best odds at +2200 behind Risacher (+2000).
2. Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs (Last week: 2)
Aside from McCain, I think Castle has shown the highest ceiling and peak during the rookie campaigns. He’s started about half the games he’s played in, and his production as a starter is really good. Castle averages 15.1 points and 4.2 assists in 29.7 minutes as a starter. Compare that with 12.1 points and 3.0 assists in 21.8 minutes coming off the bench. Castle might be peaking at the right time to take the award. Over his last 26 games, he’s averaging 17.5 points, 4.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists while making 46.8 percent of his shots in 26.7 minutes. Some of that has been boosted by Wemby being out for the season, but he’s also only started 10 of those games. The issue for Castle is twofold. 1. He wants to be a primary playmaker, and now he’s on a team with both Chris Paul and De’Aaron Fox, so he has to adjust. 2. Castle has struggled to make shots consistently this season. In the first 36 games of the season, Castle made just 38.3 percent from the field and 25.4 percent from 3.
In such a weak rookie class, Castle’s recent surge the last two months appears to be enough to take the award for a lot of voters. He’s the most recognizable name, and he has the best odds at -450 to win the award. He’s my favorite player from the class, but that doesn’t mean he should win.
1. Jaylen Wells, Memphis Grizzlies (Last week: 1)
I’m sticking with the consistency of Wells. At least for now. I’m open to Castle’s continuing his play in the final month of the campaign and ending up with the award. However, Wells deserves to get credit for remaining steady.
His numbers aren’t going to blow you away. He’s averaging 11.0 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.7 assists. He plays 26.1 minutes per game and has started 60 of the 65 games he’s played in. Wells has been a fixture in the lineup for a really good team (something we’ll get back to in a minute). Wells is holding the second-best odds at +1000 to win Rookie of the Year and was the favorite a couple of weeks ago.
Wells’ game is less about production and more about maintaining impact on both ends. Edey does something similar for the Grizzlies, as does anybody coach Taylor Jenkins is asked to plug and play. Wells is seeing a bad shooting month, and it’s coming at the same time as Castle’s rise. If your argument is that Wells hasn’t been good enough to stave off a run like Castle’s, I don’t necessarily fault it. That kind of stuff happens in a rough rookie class without any true remarkable (healthy) candidates. But at least for now, I’m valuing the consistency of Wells, and with all things relatively equal at this point, I do believe his contributing to the better team gives him the slight edge over Castle. We’ll see whether that holds.
Most Valuable Player
5 honorable mentions: Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors | Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks | Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves | Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics | Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (Last week: 4)
Quick-hitter: The toughest decision for me right now is trying to decide whether Giannis or Tatum belongs here. I have been leaning toward there’s no way you can leave Tatum off the ballot, and it still might go that way in a month when it’s time to vote. As of right now, Antetokounmpo’s numbers and the necessity of his being on the court for the Bucks to be good are ahead of Tatum. But I don’t feel great about it. Ultimately, Tatum’s team success combined with his play will probably win out.
4. Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers (Last week: 3)
Quick-hitter: I do not see how Mitchell can be left off any ballots. He’s averaging 24-4-4 with 58.5 percent true shooting, and he’s on a historically great team. It’s mostly due to his being willing to sacrifice his own personal numbers and ego for the greater good of the team that made the Cavs greater now and should hopefully set them up for playoff success they couldn’t previously attain. That’s value and leadership.
3. LeBron James, LA Lakers (Last week: honorable mention)
Quick-hitter: This groin injury might end up removing James from the final ballot if he ends up missing more than the one to two weeks he’s expected to be out. We know he’s been great all season long on offense, but the uptick in his defensive performance is what brings him back into this MVP balloting for me. James had been a pretty bad defender the previous few seasons, and so often we’d see a wide-open dunk in the lane when the weakside help should have come from James. We’ve seen an uptick this season in his defense, but especially since the Luka Dončić acquisition. James has more energy to put toward that end of the floor, and it shows.
2. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (Last week: 2)
Quick-hitter: Check out these bars from Marcus Thompson II:
Jokić has so normalized ridiculousness as to desensitize the present community from appropriate reverence. He’ll need six MVPs and 10 championships and a five-minute highlight reel of epic moments to help those who didn’t experience him to process his elitism.
You should absolutely read Marcus talking about Big Honey here. We’ll have more about Jokić next week when we dive back fully into MVP, a month after our initial check-in.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (Last week: 1)
Quick-hitter: Something that is bothering me about fans who want to be dismissive of what Gilgeous-Alexander does is that they’re likening him to the “foul merchanting” James Harden became so infamous for. I’m not sure I can get there in terms of the logic and the reasoning for it. Gilgeous-Alexander goes about his foul-drawing in a much different way. For the most part, he drives to the hoop way more than Harden typically did. Gilgeous-Alexander has learned how to be physical on his drives, and it either creates a shot for him or creates contact that leads to fouls. The refs call it for him, but it’s not the same as Harden’s constantly flailing or bringing his arms under the hand of the defender.
This race is still completely neck and neck, and I’m excited to get into it next week.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Donovan Mitchell lead two of the better teams in the NBA. (Jason Miller / Getty Images)
Defensive Player of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies | Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
3. Lu Dort, Oklahoma City Thunder (Last week: honorable mention)
Quick-hitter: The Thunder have the best defense in the league, by far, and with Jackson injured, it felt right to bring Dort into the mix. He’s one of the best defensive players in the league, and he should definitely be first-team All-Defense. Dort is a monster on that end.
2. Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks (Last week: 2)
Quick-hitter: Daniels is averaging 3.0 steals, and no player has done that since Alvin Robertson in 1990-91. He already has 184 steals on the season. No player has reached that total since Ricky Rubio in 2013-14, when he had 191 steals. Rubio played all 82 games that season. Daniels has played 61 games and still has 16 left.
1. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers (Last week: 1)
Quick-hitter: He’s still not the big favorite, at least not what we were seeing with Victor Wembanyama versus the field. Mobley is -250 to win with Daniels (+450) as his closest competition. That’s close to the same distance in the odds as SGA (-425) and Jokić (+300). I just can’t imagine anybody making a big enough push to unseat Mobley, as long as he stays healthy.
Sixth Man of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves | Ty Jerome, Cleveland Cavaliers
3. De’Andre Hunter, Cleveland Cavaliers (Last week: honorable mention)
Quick-hitter: Since joining the Cavaliers, Hunter’s scoring average has gone from 19.0 a game with the Hawks to 14.3 in Cleveland. However, the efficiency is through the roof. It was already great with a 61.6 percent true shooting in Atlanta. Now he’s hitting half of his shots and half of his 3-pointers, and we’re seeing a 68.9 percent true shooting in Cleveland.
2. Malik Beasley, Detroit Pistons (Last week: 2)
Quick-hitter: If Beasley doesn’t miss another game this season, he’s going to end up having played 80 games. If he keeps this pace up with shooting 3-pointers, he’ll finish with 313 made 3-pointers. Only Stephen Curry (five times) and James Harden (once) have made more in a season.
1. Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics (Last week: 1)
Quick-hitter: He’s averaging 14.2 points per game with 64.5 percent true shooting. The Celtics are better when he’s on the floor, and his usage rate is below 20 percent. That means he’s just hyperefficient in how he affects the game with his scoring. There were times I tried to talk myself into Beasley over him, but it’s Pritchard’s to win.
The Celtics are a better team with Payton Pritchard on the floor. (Brian Fluharty / Getty Images)
Coach of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Taylor Jenkins, Memphis Grizzlies | JJ Redick, LA Lakers
3. Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder (Last week: honorable mention)
Quick-hitter: I know this team was great last season and the No. 1 seed, so we dismiss some of what’s happening with the success of the Thunder. However, we shouldn’t dismiss the fact they have the highest margin of victory in league history. Nobody has ever been this dominant. They lost a little recently, and they still hold this mark over the 1971-72 Lakers. I doubt Daigneault will finish in the top three in voting, but we shouldn’t ignore him.
2. J.B. Bickerstaff, Detroit Pistons (Last week: 1)
Quick-hitter: It’s kind of jarring to see the Pistons house the Washington Wizards on Tuesday night and think about where these two teams were a year ago. I mean … the Wizards were in the same place and on their way to the worst season in franchise history, something they can tie if they only win two more games or set if they win fewer than two more games. The Pistons were a complete joke, too. But this year, they are fighting for home-court advantage in the first round. They aren’t in the top six in the Eastern Conference by default. They’ve earned it. That’s mostly Bickerstaff’s coaching them properly.
1. Kenny Atkinson, Cleveland Cavaliers (Last week: 2)
Quick-hitter: An impressive outpouring of Cavs fans did not read what I wrote last week and just reacted to the ranking. With that I say, thank you for clicking! But Atkinson is back in the lead position in a tight race because the Cavs keep winning. So do the Pistons, but not like this. The Cavs became the sixth team in league history to have two 15-game win streaks in the same season, and they might win 70 games. They’re on pace to get to 69 wins, and this streak doesn’t even end when Mitchell sits.
Most Improved Player
Two honorable mentions: Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks | Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics
3. Ty Jerome, Cleveland Cavaliers (Last week: unmentioned)
Quick-hitter: Jerome went from a fringe role player, bouncing around a couple of teams in his first few seasons, to being integral on the best team in the NBA. He has become indispensable for Cleveland. That’s remarkable improvement, even though he has no chance of winning this award.
2. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (Last week: 2)
Quick-hitter: Cunningham is the favorite (-275), and I might end up voting for him by season’s end. He has made solid improvements across the board while becoming much more serious about defense and applying all of this to winning. He has a great case. I just feel like we saw a lot of the skill improvements last season.
1. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers (Last week: 1)
Quick-hitter: Mobley probably has no chance of winning this, but I do think he’s shown the most improvement. He’s +8000 to win the award, putting him behind Cunningham, Daniels, the Denver Nuggets’ Christian Braun and the Miami Heat’s Tyler Herro on BetMGM. But look at Mobley last year, and look at him this year. The Cavs weren’t running offense through him like this, and he wasn’t defending like this. He’s shown the highest level of improvement to me.
(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; photos: Matt Slocum / AP; Michael Reaves, Nathaniel S. Butler / NBAE via Getty Images; David Gonzales / Imagn Images)
