The promised date for the White House’s so-called reciprocal tariffs is no longer far off in the future. The Trump administration is expected to announce a wide-ranging tariff plan on April 2. While many of the tariffs announced so far have been pitched as temporary and aimed at specific countries, Trump has said the new reciprocal levies will be permanent and more widespread. That could lead to a larger economic impact for investors. “The work from our economists suggests the growth impact of 60% tariffs on 75% of Chinese imports to the U.S. and 10% tariffs on [rest of world] imports would equate to -0.5% GDP growth globally. Inflationary pressures would be variable, though predominantly impactful to the U.S.,” UBS strategist Gerry Fowler said in a note to clients. The worry about tariffs has already taken a bite out of the stock market, but that doesn’t mean all the effects are priced in. For example, inflation could become a bigger concern, especially after the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge came in hotter than expected on Friday. “On the expectations that the stagflationary pressure continues with rising credit and earnings risk premia, we expect U.S. equities to fall slightly (SPX -3%) but with hard assets (Gold Miners and Energy) outperforming others (like Financials),” Fowler said. UBS also published a list of tariff-sensitive stocks in Fowler’s note. Some of the stocks in the list also have a neutral rating from the firm, rather than a buy rating. That includes apparel stocks Nike and Crocs , each of which have a sizeable portion of their sales outside of North America, according to UBS. Companies with significant foreign sales could take another hit if countries implement retaliatory tariffs after the new U.S. plan is unveiled.
