Costco could be a beneficiary in a high-tariff environment that also sees rising inflation, according to Loop Capital. The firm said tough economic times give the wholesale club a chance to bolster its value proposition to its membership. With this in mind, Loop reiterated a buy rating, but lowered its price target to $1,045 per share from $1,150. Loop’s forecast implies roughly 15% upside from Tuesday’s $908.75 close. Costco stock has slipped less than 1% so far in 2025 — faring far better than the broader market. For comparison, the S & P 500 is down 15% year to date. President Donald Trump followed through on tariffs with wide ranging levies on 86 countries, which has fueled market volatility. Investors continue to worry that the overhaul of U.S. trade policy could spur a global economic slowdown, and even cause a recession domestically. COST YTD mountain Costco stock in 2025. Costco is often viewed by analysts as a key stock to ride out periods of market volatility, and even a recession, due to its strong membership base and consumer loyalty . Although the company will likely be hurt by Trump’s tariffs and the escalating trade war, the retailer could gain market share over the long term, according to Laura Champine. She expects Costco won’t pass on price increases immediately, which could make it tough to hit earnings estimates in the near term. “We’re assuming that margins are negatively impacted by tariffs. Costco is slow to pass on cost increases, so there is certainly risk to even our lowered estimates in the near-term,” the analyst said. “Over time, Costco capitulates to market pricing trends to capture its normal margin levels.” Champine said her fiscal 2025 earnings estimate of $18.03 per share is now 7 cents below Wall Street’s consensus forecast. “We have reason to believe Costco’s fundamentals are likely to remain firm even if the macro deteriorates,” Champine said. “We think the company is likely to take market share in both grocery and general merchandise if we see the spike in inflation most economists predict following the imposition of widespread new tariffs.” Champine expects shoppers will come to stock up on staple goods they need, but could be tempted to buy products outside of its grocery offerings. “The seasonal assortment is attractively priced and includes some treasure hunt items. Trendy categories like beauty are showing product improvement, and COST continues to add items to its Kirkland brand and popular food court,” she said. The analyst had one caveat: Costco “has never executed through a tariff environment as volatile or extreme as this one.” Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
