For the two men at the forefront of a trade war that has begun to rupture ties between the world’s biggest economies, the question has become who will blink first.
On one side is President Trump, who unleashed a disruptive plan to transform the modern global trading system with tariffs — only to back down hours after it took effect, pausing the import duties for every country but China.
On the other side is Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, who has a well-earned reputation for refusing to yield. He stuck to China’s tight Covid restrictions long past the point where they were working. He pressed ahead with his goal of making China the world’s leader in electric vehicles and solar panels, despite alarm from trading partners about the flood of cheap exports.
Now, as Mr. Xi faces what could be the biggest test of his leadership since the pandemic, he has been true to form. On Friday, his government escalated its response to Mr. Trump, raising tariffs on U.S. imports to 125 percent, despite concerns that a prolonged trade war could deepen China’s economic malaise. Before that announcement, Mr. Xi struck a confident note in his first public comments about the trade showdown.
“There will be no winners in a tariff war, and going against the world will only isolate oneself,” Mr. Xi said while hosting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez of Spain in Beijing, without explicitly mentioning Mr. Trump or the United States.
“For more than 70 years, China has always relied on self-reliance and hard work for development,” Mr. Xi continued. “It has never relied on anyone’s gifts and is unafraid of any unreasonable suppression.”
Mr. Xi can afford to be more stubborn than his American counterpart.
As the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, he has surrounded himself with loyalists, purged his opponents and imposed tight social controls to stifle dissent. He has styled himself as a strongman with a nationalistic vision of China’s rejuvenation. His officials have mobilized state funds to stabilize Chinese financial markets as stocks around the world plunged over the tariffs.
“Xi has spent his whole career hardening the country for precisely this moment,” said Joseph Torigian, an associate professor at American University in Washington who studies elite politics in China. “He likely believes that the Chinese political system is superior to the American one because it has greater cohesion and discipline. He probably thinks the Chinese people will sacrifice for a mission of national rejuvenation.”
Mr. Xi can play the long game. He has no elections to consider and is empowered to rule over China indefinitely, having abolished presidential term limits in 2018. Mr. Trump has to leave office in 2029 (though he has suggested he might defy the Constitution and make a third run at the White House).
Mr. Xi can also point to the trade war as vindication of his frequent warnings about Western hostility toward China — his stated reason for taking an all-encompassing approach to national security and investing in a world-class military at the expense of other needs. Mr. Trump’s decision to give every country but China a reprieve from his tariffs reinforces that narrative.
“This will actually save Xi Jinping from having to take responsibility for the lack of economic growth in China. It is a ‘get out of jail free’ card for him,” said Jessica Teets, a political scientist at Middlebury College in Vermont and an expert on Chinese politics. “Chinese citizens and business leaders will view this as outside of his control.”
China’s propaganda organs have been rallying the country for a protracted fight.
People’s Daily, the ruling Communist Party’s mouthpiece, published an editorial likening Washington to a band of pirates. Chinese diplomats are closing ranks, People’s Daily reported, with one official calling for a “diplomatic iron army” that is “loyal to the Party, courageous in taking responsibility, daring to fight and strictly disciplined.”
Mao Ning, a senior Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, posted on X a video of a speech that Mao Zedong made during the Korean War — known in China as the War to Resist U.S. Aggression and Aid Korea — in which he declared, “No matter how long this war is going to last, we’ll never yield.”
“We are Chinese. We are not afraid of provocations. We don’t back down,” Ms. Mao wrote in her post.
Dali Yang, a professor at the University of Chicago who studies Chinese politics, said that such messaging was sure to continue.
“There will undoubtedly be a sustained effort to put the blame on the United States and especially Trump and his rapid moves and reversals,” Professor Yang said, adding that the party “has strong capabilities to effectively reach ordinary people.”
For all his power, Mr. Xi is not immune to popular discontent, analysts say. China is sure to feel pain from Mr. Trump’s tariffs, which have reached at least 145 percent — a staggering figure that imperils the country’s $400 billion in annual exports to the United States, its biggest market.
Already, factories near the manufacturing hub of Guangzhou that supply garments to American consumers have closed until there is more clarity on the tariffs. If such closures spread, they could exacerbate China’s unemployment problem, making it even harder for policymakers to revitalize an economy battered by a property crisis and sagging confidence.
For Mr. Xi, the test is likely to be whether the party can keep ordinary Chinese people on its side and help them endure any economic pain from the trade war.
When Mr. Xi last faced a challenge on this scale — the coronavirus pandemic — his response was initially a point of pride for many Chinese. For more than two years, it kept China’s Covid numbers enviably low with mass testing and snap lockdowns.
But he held firm to that strict policy well into 2022, as the rest of the world was learning to live with the virus. Anger over mass lockdowns led to some of the biggest protests across China in decades. Disillusionment with the country’s direction led to an exodus of wealthy Chinese and members of the professional class.
“The Chinese population may not be in a sacrificial mood after Covid,” Mr. Torigian said. “The economy has struggled to rebound. I doubt very much that Xi Jinping is blind to that problem.”
“Even if you think you have a strong repressive capacity to hurt doubters and a jingoistic story to rally supporters, economic dislocations are still dangerous because you never know how bad they will get and whether they will turn into something worse,” Mr. Torigian said.
That economic reality suggests that Mr. Xi will probably accept an off-ramp from the tariff showdown if Mr. Trump offers one, analysts said. China has said it does not want a trade war, but its officials have insisted that any deal will depend on the United States treating China as an equal.
On Thursday, Mr. Trump took a softer tone on China, saying that Mr. Xi “has been a friend of mine for a long period of time.”
“We’ll see what happens with China,” Mr. Trump said. “We would love to be able to work a deal.”
Berry Wang contributed reporting from Hong Kong.
