Wall Street is largely sticking by Netflix and its lofty growth ambitions ahead of the company’s first-quarter earnings. The streaming giant is kicking off a vital earnings season for megacap tech stocks, which have come under pressure as tariff uncertainties test markets. Netflix stands apart, however, as its shares have jumped 7.9% this year while the broader market has tumbled roughly 10.3%. The stock is up more than 55% over the past 12 months. The company is set to report its financial results after market close Thursday. Several analysts view Netflix as a largely recession-proof stock given its strong competitive moat and its subscription-based service, which is not directly affected by U.S. tariffs or levies from other countries. Netflix aims to reach a $1 trillion market capitalization and double its revenue by 2030, according to The Wall Street Journal earlier this week — and that has added to analysts’ optimism on the stock. Shares are up 4.7% this week alone. Major Wall Street firms think Netflix’s long-term outlook is realistic. Still, concerns remain about the company’s standing in a competitive streaming environment and its resilience in the face of a potential recession, as a squeeze on consumer discretionary spending could weigh on subscription growth. Demand for Netflix is expected to remain strong, but analysts are watching for other growth opportunities—particularly in advertising—when the company reports its results. In the first quarter, analysts polled by LSEG expect Netflix’s earnings to come in at $5.72 per share, up 8.2% from the year-ago period. They forecast revenue of $10.518 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth of 12.2%. In the fourth quarter, the company posted earnings of $4.27 per share on revenue of $10.25 billion, handily beating top- and bottom-line estimates while also adding a record 19 million subscribers to top 300 million paid memberships. Netflix is no longer reporting quarterly paid subscriber counts. A ‘stable stream amid choppy waters’ Analysts have turned more bullish on Netflix shares ahead of earnings. Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich said the Journal’s report validates the firm’s already bullish investment thesis on Netflix’s “ample runway for future growth into 2030,” driven by continued subscriber and earnings momentum as well as advertising and live content opportunities. She reiterated her buy rating and $1,175 price target, which implies 22.2% potential upside from Wednesday’s close. Ehrlich is among several analysts who have pointed out Netflix’s limited exposure to current macroeconomic worries. “Amid recent market volatility, Netflix’s strong subscription model with critical entertainment (which historically has performed well in a recession) has made the stock a defensive choice for investors and driven outperformance versus other technology/Mag 7 companies,” Ehrlich wrote in a Tuesday note to clients, calling the company “a stable stream amid choppy waters.” “Supported by its world-class brand, leading global subscriber base, position as an innovator and increased visibility in growth drivers, we believe that Netflix should continue to outperform,” she added. Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein on Tuesday similarly reiterated his outperform rating and $1,150 price target. He expects Netflix to boast resilient revenue and operating income, and said his rating is given “no trade exposure or material impacts from a US/global recession.” Both Helfstein and Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett noted that while a serious economic slowdown could hit advertising, Netflix’s streaming business should remain healthy as individuals have historically spent more time watching television during U.S. recessionary periods. Crockett said, “If a recession hits, we would expect Netflix subscribers to be sticky as Netflix is a stay at home cheap diversion, of the type that has held up well in past recessions. And Netflix has pricing leverage, suggesting it could pass on some tariff hikes if other countries/regions like the EU retaliate on services for Trump’s war on trade in goods.” Subscription opportunity Wall Street shops anticipate Netflix will continue to see more users flock to its streaming service, adding to the company’s solid subscriber count. Bank of America’s Ehrlich and Jefferies analyst James Heaney remain optimistic that Netflix’s ad-supported tier and pricing changes will support subscription growth over the next several years. Netflix increased its prices across all U.S. subscription plans in January — affecting the ad-supported plan, the standard plan, and the premium plan — after last raising its prices in Oct. 2023 . The company introduced its ad-supported tier in Nov. 2022 after seeing a net member addition slowdown. “We see near-term subscriber growth coming from the password sharing crackdown and new ad-supported tier, with longer-term growth coming from continued price hikes and the multibillion-dollar ad business,” Heaney wrote in a Monday note. “We do not forecast a major sub issue (even in a slowdown) as the [advertising-based video on demand] tier at $7.99/mo gives consumers a trade down option and even the Premium tier remains a limited part of overall budgets.” NFLX 1Y mountain Netflix stock performance. Analysts are also watching for engagement metrics such as viewing hours, as Netflix’s upcoming report will be the first to exclude quarterly subscription numbers. BMO Capital Markets Brian Pitz said engagement is growing at a healthy level, fueled by artificial intelligence, personalization and a mix of compelling content. UBS analyst John Hodulik expects strong first-quarter engagement driven by Netflix’s top titles. “We believe the flow through of record 4Q subscriber performance and price increases will jump start growth for the year while the return of several key franchises including Stranger Things, Squid Games and Wednesday sustains momentum,” Hodulik wrote in a note to clients this week. He has a buy rating and $1,140 price target on Netflix shares. Advertising potential Netflix’s advertising business is key for the company’s long-term goals, one of which is to earn about $9 billion in global ad sales by 2030, per the Journal. Ad revenue contributed to just 4% of Netflix’s total revenue in the fourth quarter. KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Justin Patterson is one analyst viewing Netflix’s budding ad business as a launching pad for greater revenue opportunities. “Netflix has been shifting to more of a monetization than membership story, and the six-year [compound annual growth rates] for membership and revenue imply larger contributions from monetization initiatives (including advertising reaching $9B, or ~11.5% of revenue),” Justin Patterson wrote in a Monday note. “We view these targets as reorienting Q & A around investment into a potential downturn and the next steps to scale the ads business (which includes attracting direct response budgets).” Patterson kept his overweight rating on the stock heading into earnings. Jefferies’ Heaney sees “plenty of runway” ahead in Netflix’s advertising business. He pointed out that Netflix is on track to launch its own its in-house ad tech stack in the U.S., which he believes should support advertisers’ targeting needs. He said that longer term, increased ad loads and fill rates, or the percentage of times an ad request is filled by an ad network, should support this runway. Bank of America and UBS are similarly bullish on Netflix’s long-term ad opportunity even amid a potentially softer ad environment. UBS’ Hodulik lowered his first-quarter ad estimates by 5-10%, but said that overall revenue risks are limited given Netflix’s overall low ad exposure. “We still see a path to double digit revenue growth even if ad takes longer to scale,” he said. “Netflix’s advertising business, which is nascent, should be an incremental positive, not negative, even in a more challenging advertising backdrop,” Bank of America’s Ehrlich said. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? 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