Investor pessimism rebounds and bullishness fades in latest AAII survey
Pessimism rebounded in the latest survey of Main Street investors by the American Association of Individual Investors. Bearish opinion toward stocks over the next six months grew to 41.9% this week from 36.7% last week, above its historical average of 31.0% for the 26th time in 28 weeks.
Bullish sentiment toward the short-term outlook dropped to 32.9% of poll respondents, down from 37.7% last week and below its historical average of 37.5% for the 16th time in 17 weeks.
In a special question, nearly 64% of those surveyed said “tariffs, the economy and/or inflation” are the factor most influencing their six-month outlook for stocks, trailed by corporate earnings (11%), valuations (10%) and monetary policy and interest rates (9%).
— Scott Schnipper
Inflation data on Friday expected to show Fed’s preferred gauge still above 2%
The April index for personal consumption expenditures is expected to show inflation still above 2% when it is released Friday morning.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect PCE to rise 0.1% month over month and 2.2% year over year. For core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, projections call for a 0.1% monthly increase and 2.6% for the year. Core PCE is the measure of inflation generally favored by the Federal Reserve.
Additionally, Vanguard economist Josh Hirt said in a note to keep an eye on potential “upward revisions to January and March PCEs due to [producer price index] revisions of hospitals, physicians, and insurance services.”
Gene Goldman, Cetera CIO, told CNBC that he expects a cool inflation reading on Friday but doesn’t think it will generate much market reaction. He said short-term data is noisy and still being impacted by factors like companies trying to front-run the tariffs by importing extra supplies and inventory earlier this year.
— Jesse Pound
Stocks making the biggest moves after hours
Check out some of the companies making headlines in extended trading.
- Gap — The apparel stock plummeted more than 16% as lackluster second-quarter revenue guidance overshadowed an earnings beat for Q1. Gap expects Q2 revenue to remain about flat year over year. Analysts expected a forecast calling for a slight gain.
- Costco — The wholesale retailer reported quarterly results that beat analyst expectations, yet shares were little changed. The company earned $4.28 per share on revenue of $63. 2 billion. Analysts expected a profit of $4.24 per share on revenue of $63.19 billion. Same-store sales growth and gross margins were above estimates as well.
- Dell Technologies — Shares of the technology company gained more than 5% after first-quarter revenue surpassed analyst estimates. Dell reported revenue of $23.38 billion, while analysts polled by LSEG called for $23.14 billion. The company also raised its full-year earnings guidance.
Read the full list here.
— Brian Evans
Stock futures are little changed
Stock futures were little changed on Thursday, as investors await more clarity on U.S. trade policy.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled back 38 points, or 0.09%. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1%, alongside Nasdaq 100 futures.
— Brian Evans
