Analysts don’t have high hopes for Tesla ‘s quarterly delivery numbers due this week. The electric vehicle maker is set to release second-quarter numbers Wednesday, but analysts aren’t optimistic. Most have reduced their estimates, expecting the headwinds that have led Tesla deliveries to lately miss analysts’ estimates have not cleared. Analysts currently forecast Tesla will report 387,000 vehicle deliveries in the quarter, according to FactSet. The pessimism is nothing new, as Tesla’s sales have been pressured for several quarters, a result of public outcry from CEO Elon Musk’s role in the Trump administration and partial factory shutdowns. The stock has also taken a beating as competitive pressures mount, especially from Chinese automakers such as BYD , Li Auto , Nio and Geely . Shares of Tesla tumbled as much as 7.7% in early trading Tuesday after President Donald Trump suggested in a late night social media post that the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency should look at subsidies given to Musk’s companies, rekindling the feud between the two after Musk again criticized the president’s tax-and-spending bill . But analysts point to one bright spot for Tesla —its recent pivot towards Full Self Driving with the launch of its Robotaxi services in Austin, Texas this month. Analysts were largely bullish following the debut, with Benchmark Equity Research raising its 12-month price target for Tesla to $475 per share, about 50% above Tesla’s closing price Monday. Ahead of Tesla’s 2Q deliveries report on Wednesday, here’s what analysts at some of the biggest banks on Wall Street had to say. Deutsche Bank “We expect Tesla’s 2Q25 deliveries to miss sell-side consensus expectations but this shouldn’t come as a surprise as buyside expectations are already materially lower at the moment. Specifically, we estimate 355k deliveries (down from prior 385k), below consensus +380k, representing a nearly 20% decline YoY albeit up > 5% sequentially. By geo, the largest declines could once again be coming from Europe where we believe the brand has been damaged the most and competition is intensifying … While we had anticipated a Model Q unveil/launch occurring in late June, this clearly appears to be delayed and Tesla’s volume may only benefit from this in 4Q.” William Blair “Our analysis reveals that Tesla’s valuation is increasingly dependent on the robotaxi business. With the successful launch in Austin, Tesla is entering its transition from auto maker to AI and autonomous driving, a move that opens up a new trillion-dollar [total addressable market] … We are reducing our delivery estimates (about 355,000 versus consensus at about 385,000) ahead of this week’s release; we view the setup as similar to last quarter where the buy-side is ahead of sell-side estimates. In sum, despite some crosswinds, we believe the launch of robotaxi keeps momentum at Tesla’s back and we remain at Outperform.” Barclays “Fundamentals remain challenged, with pressure on both volume and margin forecasts. EPS revisions down ~40% in the past year, and investors continue to await margin trough (potentially 1Q25). Tesla’s strategic pivot toward autonomous driving / AI over vehicle sales has only become more visible, with lower vehicle volumes overshadowed by the attractive [autonomous vehicle] TAM opportunity ahead. That said, we continue to see the Auto business as the key revenue driver in the coming years, with solid contribution from the Energy business. While Robotaxi launched recently, we continue to see the outcome of Tesla’s AV efforts as binary. The EV environment has fallen into a deep EV Winter, with EV growth ex-China far below expectations. Tesla has struggled globally, with volumes likely down two years in a row.” Canaccord Genuity “We are lowering 2Q25 delivery estimates from ~432.5k to ~360.0k. We had taken a view that the impact of Mr. Musk’s political associations could not be properly discerned in 1Q25 based on a mid-quarter Model Y production ramp. Well, we think it’s now fair to say there’s been an impact. 2Q deliveries are tracking poorly in many geographies, including Europe where hard mid-quarter data is more readily available. We await (potential) new models later this year, potential extra traction from a quite compelling revamped Model Y and buzz from Robotaxi to help the rest of 2025.” Cantor Fitzgerald “On 6/26, TSLA announced that Omead Afshar, an executive overseeing sales and manufacturing in North America and Europe, had left the company. Afshar played a key role in ramping up production at the Texas Gigafactory and executing strategic initiatives directly under Musk. He was employed at Tesla for 8 years and previously served as a product engineer and operations manager at St. Jude Medical. These markets have become pain points for TSLA, with sales falling due to rising competition (primarily from Chinese OEMs) and a consumer backlash to Musk’s recent role in the Trump Administration.” JPMorgan “Based on our checks, the softer demand for Tesla vehicles evident in 1Q results appears to have continued into 2Q, such that we now expect the rate of y/y decline in deliveries to accelerate from -13% y/y in 1Q to -19% y/y in 2Q, with deliveries falling from 444K a year ago to just 360K, representing a sizable -8% shortfall vs. Bloomberg consensus for 392K … We see material risk to the outlook for full year deliveries also, given that consensus requires a sharp pivot from underperformance to outperformance of expected seasonal pattern despite the likely significant near-term curtailment of EV subsidies.”
