After pulling back to an ascending 200-day moving average in mid-June, shares of Mastercard (MA) have resumed a strong uptrend phase. Having regained moving average resistance in recent weeks, MA is once again testing its all-time high around $595. With strong momentum readings and improving relative strength, this week’s breakout could lead to much further highs for this global payments giant. The daily chart of Mastercard shows how quickly the stock recovered from its Q1 sell-off into the April low. By early May, the financial services leader had regained 100% of the downtrend phase. But after making a new all-time high into early June, the stock experienced a strong pullback to the 200-day moving average. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged as MA tested this long-term trend barometer, which also represented a 50% retracement of the April to June rally phase. Soon after this constructive candle pattern, Mastercard pushed up to set a new resistance level around $570. Over the last three weeks, MA has now powered above this resistance point to once again test the June high around $590. So, what gives us confidence that this latest upward thrust could be the beginning of a much broader advance? The RSI pushed above 60 this week as the price retested the previous all-time high, in a move that is similar to previous bullish phases. New swing highs in May 2025, August 2024, and November 2023 were all marked with a similar improvement in price momentum. Bearish periods have also shown very consistent patterns, with the RSI usually remaining below 60 on rallies and pushing below 30 on selloffs. The rotation that we’ve now observed, with the RSI rotating to a classic bullish range, gives further support to the thesis that this could be the beginning of a more significant uptrend phase for Mastercard. While the evidence certainly supports further improvement for Mastercard, a quick review of previous tops for this fintech innovator can help us identify potential warning signs of a downside reversal. Previous uptrends in Q2 2025, Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 have all ended with a classic bearish momentum divergence pattern. Strong upward moves on higher RSI readings reinforce the bullish technical configuration and suggest further gains. But a new swing high driven by weaker momentum readings represents waning support for advance, and usually means a major top is in the works. Given the improving momentum picture and accelerating relative strength profile, the current technical setup suggests a healthy breakout as long as MA pushes above $595 and holds that breakout level. And while an analysis of previous major tops can give us a decent checklist to identify upside exhaustion, the lack of warning signals for now suggests this could be just the beginning for this credit card powerhouse. -David Keller, CMT marketmisbehavior.com DISCLOSURES: None. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
