Nvidia’s moat is under threat by other artificial intelligence chipmakers, according to Citi. Analyst Atif Malik kept his buy rating on Nvidia but trimmed his price target by $10 to $210. His new target suggests that shares of the tech giant, which are up 24.4% this year, could see 19.7% additional upside from Friday’s close. Malik’s lower target comes after Broadcom’s quarterly results last week reflected strong year-over-year growth. The company also announced a $10 billion order of custom AI chips, which the company calls XPUs, from a fourth mystery customer. On the back of these results, Malik said he expects Nvidia to report roughly 4% lower 2026 GPU sales than previously estimated. He said growing competition from Broadcom could be fueled by Google’s increasingly competitive tensor processing units, or TPUs, that are a growing threat to sales of Nvidia’s Graphics Processing Units. NVDA 1Y mountain Nvidia stock performance over the past year. “We previously expected the AI XPU chip sales to outpace GPU sales in 2026 and view Broadcom’s comments of faster XPU adoption likely driven by Google’s shift in indirectly competing with Nvidia to offer compute capacity to its rivals like Meta, Open AI, and Oracle, a risk we flagged recently,” Malik wrote in a Monday note to clients. “We estimate ~$12B GPU sales impact to Nvidia’s 2026 sales from the above deals.” The next key event for Nvidia is CEO Jensen Huang’s GTC keynote speech scheduled for Oct. 28. Shares of Nvidia have slid about 8.6% over the past month after the company’s data center revenue grew slightly less than expected in the second quarter. Concerns are also growing about Nvidia’s clientele, as top two customers made up 39% of its total revenue in its July quarter. Malik noted that his calendar year 2025 and 2026 estimates on Nvidia are still slightly above the consensus, driven by growth in spending tied to neoclouds and sovereign AI , the latter referring to deals involving specific nations producing and controlling its own AI infrastructure. His estimates do not include China, which he said could be a source of upside if Nvidia resumes GPU shipments to the country.
