The National Thanksgiving turkeys, Blossom and Peach, wait before being pardoned by U.S. President Joe Biden during a ceremony on the South Lawn of the White House on November 25, 2024 in Washington, DC.
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The price of turkeys is soaring this Thanksgiving, and experts say consumers will have to hunt around to find a bargain for those birds.
Driving the price hikes is a stressed turkey supply chain.
The U.S. turkey flock has dropped to its lowest size in nearly 40 years because of the highly pathogenic avian influenza, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
As a result, wholesale turkey prices have surged 75% since October 2024, according to an analysis by the Purdue University College of Agriculture.
Wholesale turkey prices averaged 94 cents per pound at that point last year, compared with $1.71 per pound last month, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.
Purdue University’s model predicts that the average retail price of a turkey will be approximately $2.05 per pound in November, which is 25% higher than a year ago, costing consumers about $31 for a 15-pound bird.
Purdue analysts emphasized that the actual retail price range of turkeys is wide because of differences in quality — organic or pasture-raised turkeys cost more.
The timing of the turkey orders by retailers also is critical in determining price.
“Retailers that didn’t secure their turkey orders early may face steep spot market prices, which could impact availability and cost,” wrote Dr. Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist for the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.
“In contrast, those who waited may now be facing steep spot market prices,” Swanson said.
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Consumers could end up paying $20 more for a 16-pound turkey if they buy it from a retailer who purchased it on the spot market, compared with what it would cost at a retailer who purchased the turkey earlier on the wholesale market.
“This year, where you shop could make a big difference, and savvy consumers may find significant savings by comparing options,” Swanson said.
Major retailers who placed early orders appear to be leveraging their turkeys as a draw to bring shoppers into stores, according to Swanson.
Walmart is offering a dinner bundle, which includes a 16-pound turkey and sides, for under $56 for 10 people.
A Thanksgiving bundle from Aldi’s sells for $40 and feeds 10 people. Amazon is offering its own Thanksgiving dinner promotion for $25. Target on Wednesday announced a $20 Thanksgiving deal for four.
Other grocers, such as ShopRite and Foodtown, are offering customers a free 10-to-20-pound store-brand turkey if they spend $400 by Thanksgiving. BJ’s is running a similar promotion for $150.
Wells Fargo‘s annual Thanksgiving food report shows that the typical cost of a turkey dinner for consumers is higher than those deals. A holiday menu that uses all store-brand items costs $80, while a menu with all national name brands totals $95, Wells Fargo’s report said.
“Our report shows consumers spending more this Thanksgiving than on the retail promotions because we lean into a mix of prepared items and items that need assembly, which cost more versus making items from scratch,” Swanson said.
“That mix in our view, more accurately portrays what we expect consumers to use for the meal this year.”
In addition to the timing of purchases, the strength of supply-chain relationships between grocers and the farmers they work with has enabled some retailers to keep turkey prices from soaring.
Customers push shopping carts outside a Stew Leonard’s supermarket in Paramus, New Jersey, U.S., on Tuesday, May 12, 2020. Stew Leonard Jr. said that meat packing plant the company uses is operating at about 70 percent capacity, and he expects it to rebound to full capacity in about a month, CT Post reported.
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Stew Leonard’s — which operates a small chain of grocery stores in Connecticut, New York and New Jersey — said it was able to keep its turkey prices the same as last year because of its longstanding relationship with its bird supplier.
“We have been working with the same farm for decades, and the farm hasn’t been impacted by bird flu,” said Stew Leonard Jr., the chain’s CEO.
Thanksgiving dinner traditionally is considered one of the most affordable holiday meals, because red meat is not typically served.
But given the increase in turkey prices, Leonard said, ham is a good alternative option for a Thanksgiving main course.
Consumers could also opt to go to a butcher or store that will sell dark turkey meat or parts, which would cost less than a whole bird, he said.
The reduction in flock size has led to layoffs for poultry producers.
Perdue Farms in September announced it was laying off nearly 300 employees at an Indiana turkey plant, reportedly because of bird flu and a consumer shift toward other meats.
One farmer who supplies Perdue said he lost 48,000 turkeys after a flu test came back positive.
The USDA is forecasting an increase in turkey production in 2026, assuming the avian flu abates.
But because of the current size of the flock, prices are not expected to drop considerably in 2026.
The top eight states for turkey production are Minnesota, North Carolina, Arkansas, Indiana, Missouri, Virginia, Iowa and Pennsylvania. Turkey farms in North Dakota and South Dakota were hit with an outbreak of the flu in September.
No new data on turkeys and agriculture is expected to be released by the USDA due to the government shutdown, which on Wednesday became the longest shutdown in U.S. history.
