From AI enthusiasm to bubble worries in one day

U.S. stocks delivered one of their sharpest mood swings in months on Thursday.

The Nasdaq Composite ended down 2.16% after spending the morning stateside up as much as 2.6%. The wild swings from high to low (regrettably, not in the opposite direction) were also seen in the S&P 500, which lost 1.56% at the end of the day after reaching a high of 1.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average followed the same arc, closing 0.84% lower from an intraday rise of 1.56%.

Nvidia led the turbulence. Shares of the AI chip darling were up as much as 5% before tumbling from that peak to finish the session down 3.2%. Plotted roughly, the movement of other AI shares, including Oracle and AMD, traced similar paths, suggesting Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s rejection of the AI bubble narrative initially reassured investors, but their concerns couldn’t be repressed for long.

September’s U.S. jobs report also added to the market’s strain. Even though the data was so delayed that today’s economy could look very different from what it was two months ago, the numbers were much better than expected. That further dampened expectations of a rate cut, with traders increasing their bets that U.S. Federal Reserve officials will hold interest rates in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Investors now find themselves contending with stretched valuations and one fewer rate cut on the horizon. Holiday optimism is still on the calendar, but the timeline for cheer to set in looks less generous than hoped for.

U.S. stocks fell as AI stocks tumbled again. Major indexes closed in the red on Thursday stateside in a volatile day of trading, while Bitcoin fell to its lowest price since April. Europe’s Stoxx 600 added 0.4%, with AI-related stocks such as ASML and BESI ticking up.

Key takeaways from Nvidia’s earnings. CEO Jensen Huang rejected the idea of an “AI bubble,” CFO Colette Kress affirmed the company’s “half a trillion” revenue forecast and said China orders during the quarter were “insignificant.”

The U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September. That’s sharply higher than the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 50,000. Unemployment rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in August, the highest in almost four years.

Ray Dalio counsels holding amid bubble. The Bridgewater founder told CNBC on Thursday “the picture is pretty clear” that we are in a bubble. But nothing is popping it just yet, and investors should still hold on to their positions.

[PRO] A ‘storm brewing’ in UK investment trusts. Activist investor Boaz Weinstein thinks there are opportunities because of valuation mismatches — and has revealed two of his plays in this space.

Nvidia had a blowout quarter. But analysts warn the real AI bubble risk lies elsewhere

While Nvidia’s earnings are widely viewed as an important gauge of the AI industry’s health, some analysts warn that its performance doesn’t tell the whole story. 

Analysts who spoke to CNBC drew a line in the sand between AI chip companies, such as Nvidia, and downstream players, including hyperscalers and firms building AI models. “The concern is about companies raising a lot of debt to build data centers,” said Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson.

— Dylan Butts