Treasury yields were lower on Friday as investors contemplated the latest developments surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell more than 4 basis points to trade at 4.059%. Yields across the maturity curve ticked lower, with the 2-year Treasury yield shedding more than 5 basis points to 3.501% and the longer-term 30-year Treasury‘s yield being down more than 2 basis points at 4.706%.
One basis point equals 0.01% and yields and prices move in opposite directions.
On Friday, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams offered some hope to investors that the Fed may lower its key interest rate at its final meeting of 2025 next month.
“I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral, thereby maintaining the balance between the achievement of our two goals,” he said in remarks for a speech in Santiago, Chile.
Fed funds futures traders increased their bets for a December cut following Williams’ remarks, pricing in a more than 70% likelihood, the CME’s FedWatch tool showed.
Expectations had fallen drastically in recent weeks. In the day prior to Williams’ comments, money markets were pricing in less than a 40% chance of a cut next month.
Yields had taken a dive earlier Friday following Thursday’s sell-off in U.S. equities, a move spurred by increasing pessimism toward the rate outlook and concerns over valuation levels in the artificial intelligence trade.
Global markets are also digesting Thursday’s delayed nonfarm payrolls report, which showed the economy added more jobs than expected in September, but the unemployment rate also rose to 4.4% — its highest level since Oct. 2021.
